DexCom Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

DXCM Stock  USD 67.66  0.34  0.51%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for DexCom Inc is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DexCom Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 67.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.25.When DexCom Inc prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any DexCom Inc trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent DexCom observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for DexCom Inc are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for DexCom works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DexCom Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 67.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.88 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.25 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DexCom Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DexCom's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for DexCom Inc focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Market Value
67.66
67.81
Expected Value
69.80
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DexCom stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DexCom stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1229
MADMean absolute deviation1.0042
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0144
SAESum of the absolute errors59.25
When DexCom Inc prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any DexCom Inc trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent DexCom observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for DexCom

Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering DexCom needs to understand the dynamics of DexCom's price movement. Price charts for DexCom Stock contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.

DexCom Related Equities

The following equities are related to DexCom within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing DexCom against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

DexCom Market Strength Events

Analyzing market strength indicators for DexCom enables investors to understand how the stock performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in DexCom Inc.

DexCom Risk Indicators

Identifying and analyzing DexCom's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process helps investors quantify the risk associated with DexCom's and decide how to manage it.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for DexCom

The amount of media and story coverage tied to DexCom Inc can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.

DexCom Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for DexCom Inc is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding405.5 M
Cash And Short Term InvestmentsB

More Resources for DexCom Stock Analysis

Understanding DexCom Inc typically begins with financial statements and long-term trend review. Ratio analysis helps investors evaluate DexCom Inc Stock operating efficiency and financial trajectory. Highlighted below are reports that provide context for DexCom Inc Stock: