DexCom Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| DXCM Stock | USD 67.66 0.34 0.51% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for DexCom Inc is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DexCom Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 67.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.25.When DexCom Inc prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any DexCom Inc trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent DexCom observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for DexCom Inc are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DexCom Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 67.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.88 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.25 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DexCom Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DexCom's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest DexCom | DexCom Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for DexCom Inc focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DexCom stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DexCom stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1229 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0042 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0144 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 59.25 |
Other Forecasting Options for DexCom
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering DexCom needs to understand the dynamics of DexCom's price movement. Price charts for DexCom Stock contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.DexCom Related Equities
The following equities are related to DexCom within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing DexCom against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
DexCom Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for DexCom enables investors to understand how the stock performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in DexCom Inc.
DexCom Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing DexCom's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process helps investors quantify the risk associated with DexCom's and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Variance | 3.91 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.48 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for DexCom
The amount of media and story coverage tied to DexCom Inc can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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DexCom Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for DexCom Inc is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 405.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |