Dynex Capital Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| DX Stock | USD 12.46 0.04 0.32% |
This reference page presents Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Dynex Capital. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dynex Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 12.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.10.When Dynex Capital prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Dynex Capital trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Dynex Capital observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Dynex Capital is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dynex Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 12.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.10 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dynex Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dynex Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Dynex Capital's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 11.18 and upside near 13.64.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dynex Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dynex Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0083 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1203 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.009 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.0992 |
Other Forecasting Options for Dynex Capital
Dynex Capital's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Dynex often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.Dynex Capital Related Equities
These stocks within the Financials space are often compared to Dynex Capital by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Looking at Dynex Capital's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Dynex Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Dynex Capital stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Dynex Capital.
Dynex Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Dynex Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Dynex Capital's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Variance | 1.43 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Dynex Capital
A coverage review of Dynex Capital shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Dynex Capital Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Dynex Capital matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 125.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 930.4 M |