Dow Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| DOW Stock | USD 27.95 0.17 0.61% |
Dow Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Dow's stock price is slightly above 62 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Dow, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.73) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.43) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.28) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.6268 | Wall Street Target Price 27.8125 |
Using Dow hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dow Inc from the perspective of Dow response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Dow using Dow's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Dow using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Dow's stock price.
Dow Short Interest
An investor who is long Dow may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Dow and may potentially protect profits, hedge Dow with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 25.5686 | Short Percent 0.0453 | Short Ratio 2.56 | Shares Short Prior Month 30.1 M | 50 Day MA 24.4654 |
Dow Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Dow Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 27.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.51.Dow Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Dow's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Dow. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Dow can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Dow Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Dow's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Dow.
Dow Implied Volatility | 0.47 |
Dow's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Dow Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Dow's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Dow stock will not fluctuate a lot when Dow's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Dow Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 27.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.51.
Dow after-hype prediction price | USD 28.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dow to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Dow contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Dow Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0294% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Dow trading at USD 27.95, that is roughly USD 0.00821 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Dow's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Dow Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.47%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Dow Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Dow's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Dow's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Dow stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Dow's open interest, investors have to compare it to Dow's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Dow is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Dow. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Dow Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Dow price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dow using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dow charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Dow Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Dow Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 27.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91, mean absolute percentage error of 1.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dow Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dow's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Dow Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Dow | Dow Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Dow Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Dow's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dow's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.10 and 30.13, respectively. We have considered Dow's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dow stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dow stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2245 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.91 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0379 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 55.5074 |
Predictive Modules for Dow
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dow Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Dow After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Dow at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dow or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Dow, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Dow Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Dow's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dow's historical news coverage. Dow's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.51 and 30.55, respectively. We have considered Dow's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Dow is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dow Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Dow Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Dow is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dow backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dow, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 2.52 | 0.08 | 0.51 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
27.95 | 28.03 | 0.29 |
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Dow Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January Dow Inc is traded for 27.95. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.51. Dow is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 28.03 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 0.29%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.35%. The volatility of related hype on Dow is about 173.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.46. The company reported the last year's revenue of 42.96 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.2 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.95 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dow to cross-verify your projections.Dow Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Dow's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dow's future price movements. Getting to know how Dow's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dow may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LYB | LyondellBasell Industries NV | 0.53 | 8 per month | 2.22 | 0.03 | 5.73 | (3.84) | 11.53 | |
| IFF | International Flavors Fragrances | 0.12 | 9 per month | 1.49 | 0.03 | 3.09 | (2.47) | 7.75 | |
| DD | Dupont De Nemours | 0.13 | 12 per month | 0.79 | 0.21 | 3.40 | (2.06) | 11.55 | |
| RPM | RPM International | 0.83 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.54 | (2.53) | 6.87 | |
| SQM | Sociedad Quimica y | 0.03 | 8 per month | 1.80 | 0.31 | 6.23 | (3.79) | 13.35 | |
| ALB | Albemarle Corp | 4.28 | 8 per month | 3.18 | 0.23 | 6.48 | (6.18) | 14.41 | |
| PPG | PPG Industries | 2.04 | 10 per month | 1.40 | 0.09 | 2.51 | (1.72) | 7.74 | |
| CX | Cemex SAB de | 0.12 | 10 per month | 1.07 | 0.22 | 3.44 | (1.76) | 13.23 | |
| PKX | POSCO Holdings | 0.48 | 12 per month | 2.04 | 0.05 | 5.01 | (3.42) | 18.39 | |
| RS | Reliance Steel Aluminum | 5.97 | 10 per month | 0.68 | 0.18 | 2.67 | (1.55) | 5.44 |
Other Forecasting Options for Dow
For every potential investor in Dow, whether a beginner or expert, Dow's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dow Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dow. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dow's price trends.Dow Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dow stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dow could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dow by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Dow Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dow stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dow shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dow stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Dow Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Dow Risk Indicators
The analysis of Dow's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dow's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dow stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.86 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.55 | |||
| Variance | 6.52 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.79 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.99 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.10) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Dow
The number of cover stories for Dow depends on current market conditions and Dow's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dow is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dow's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Dow Short Properties
Dow's future price predictability will typically decrease when Dow's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Dow Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Dow's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dow's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 705.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.6 B |
Additional Tools for Dow Stock Analysis
When running Dow's price analysis, check to measure Dow's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dow is operating at the current time. Most of Dow's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dow's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dow's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dow to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.