Dogecoin Crypto Coin Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

DOGE Crypto  USD 0.12  0.01  7.69%   
Dogecoin Crypto Coin outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Dogecoin crypto prices and determine the direction of Dogecoin's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Dogecoin's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the RSI of Dogecoin's share price is approaching 41 suggesting that the crypto coin is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Dogecoin, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 41

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Dogecoin's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Dogecoin, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Dogecoin hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dogecoin from the perspective of Dogecoin response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

Dogecoin Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Dogecoin's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Dogecoin. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Dogecoin can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Dogecoin. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding crypto coins that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Dogecoin's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Dogecoin.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dogecoin on the next trading day is expected to be 0.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.30.

Dogecoin after-hype prediction price

    
  .CC 0.12  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as crypto price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dogecoin to cross-verify your projections.

Dogecoin Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Dogecoin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dogecoin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dogecoin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Dogecoin simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Dogecoin are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Dogecoin prices get older.

Dogecoin Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dogecoin on the next trading day is expected to be 0.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000049, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.30.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dogecoin Crypto Coin prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dogecoin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dogecoin Crypto Coin Forecast Pattern

Dogecoin Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Dogecoin's Crypto Coin value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dogecoin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 5.53, respectively. We have considered Dogecoin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.12
0.12
Expected Value
5.53
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dogecoin crypto coin data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dogecoin crypto coin, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria108.1833
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.001
MADMean absolute deviation0.0049
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.035
SAESum of the absolute errors0.2985
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Dogecoin forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Dogecoin observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Dogecoin

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dogecoin. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the crypto coin market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the crypto coin market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.010.125.49
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.010.115.48
Details

Dogecoin After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Dogecoin at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dogecoin or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Crypto Coin prices, such as prices of Dogecoin, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Dogecoin Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Dogecoin's crypto coin value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dogecoin's historical news coverage. Dogecoin's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.01 and 5.49, respectively. We have considered Dogecoin's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.12
0.12
After-hype Price
5.49
Upside
Dogecoin is extremely risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dogecoin is based on 3 months time horizon.

Dogecoin Crypto Coin Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Cryptocurrency such as Dogecoin is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dogecoin backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Crypto price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dogecoin, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.58 
5.41
  0.01 
  0.06 
3 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.12
0.12
0.00 
54,100  
Notes

Dogecoin Hype Timeline

Dogecoin is currently traded for 0.12. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Dogecoin is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.58%. %. The volatility of related hype on Dogecoin is about 5536.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.18. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dogecoin to cross-verify your projections.

Dogecoin Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Dogecoin's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dogecoin's future price movements. Getting to know how Dogecoin's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dogecoin may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Dogecoin

For every potential investor in Dogecoin, whether a beginner or expert, Dogecoin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dogecoin Crypto Coin price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dogecoin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dogecoin's price trends.

Dogecoin Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dogecoin crypto coin to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dogecoin could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dogecoin by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dogecoin Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dogecoin crypto coin reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dogecoin shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dogecoin crypto coin market strength indicators, traders can identify Dogecoin entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Dogecoin Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dogecoin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dogecoin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dogecoin crypto coin prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Dogecoin

The number of cover stories for Dogecoin depends on current market conditions and Dogecoin's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dogecoin is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dogecoin's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
When determining whether Dogecoin offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Dogecoin's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Dogecoin Crypto.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dogecoin to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Dogecoin's coin value and its market price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Cryptocurrency investors typically determine Dogecoin value by looking at such factors as its true mass adoption, usability, application, safety as well as its ability to resist fraud and manipulation. On the other hand, Dogecoin's price is the amount at which it trades on the cryptocurrency exchange or other digital marketplace that truly represents its supply and demand.