DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| DNIOX Fund | USD 7.87 -0.01 -0.13% |
DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data reflects the model's output when applied to available daily price observations. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations. This information is intended as reference material for analytical purposes.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dunham International Opportunity on the next trading day is expected to be 7.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.74.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Dunham International Opportunity forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference values for DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dunham International Opportunity on the next trading day is expected to be 7.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0003 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.74 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DUNHAM Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.0671 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0121 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.7374 |
Other Forecasting Options for DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL
Relative Strength Index values for DUNHAM measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL's returns helps calibrate position size and stop-loss levels. Candlestick pattern analysis of DUNHAM Mutual Fund daily data can reveal short-term reversal or continuation signals. Identifying these patterns in DUNHAM Mutual Fund data supports better trade timing.DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL Related Equities
These stocks are related to DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL within the World Bond space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Growth rate gaps between DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators provide a structured view of how DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL mutual fund is positioned relative to trends. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Dunham International Opportunity. These signals help validate or refine position timing for DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL. Review these indicators alongside DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL's fundamental data for a complete analytical picture.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.87 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.87 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.32 |
DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL Risk Indicators
The analysis of DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL's risk metrics is one of the most important steps in projecting its future price. This process quantifies the risk associated with DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL's and helps determine how to manage it. A structured analysis of DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve forecast accuracy. Investors who carefully evaluate the risks in DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL's are better positioned to make informed decisions.
| Mean Deviation | 0.145 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.2189 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2234 | |||
| Variance | 0.0499 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.1161 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0479 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.20 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for DUNHAM INTERNATIONAL
A coverage review of Dunham International Opportunity shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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