Dongfeng Pink Sheet Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| DNFGF Stock | USD 1.05 -0.15 -12.50% |
Dongfeng's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dongfeng Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.53.When Dongfeng Group prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Dongfeng Group trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Dongfeng observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. Dongfeng's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dongfeng Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.53 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dongfeng Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dongfeng's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Dongfeng | Dongfeng Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Dongfeng Group focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 0.01 on the downside to about 7.87 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dongfeng pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dongfeng pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.002 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0429 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.034 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.5285 |
Other Forecasting Options for Dongfeng
Analyzing Dongfeng's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Dongfeng's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.Dongfeng Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Dongfeng within the Auto Manufacturers space and serve as useful points for comparison. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Dongfeng Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Dongfeng pink sheet provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade Dongfeng.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.88 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.05 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.05 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.07 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.15 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 40.93 |
Dongfeng Risk Indicators
Assessing Dongfeng's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting Dongfeng's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 3.04 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.03 | |||
| Variance | 49.43 | |||
| Downside Variance | 250.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 26.85 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -11.16 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Dongfeng
Story coverage around Dongfeng Group often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Financial ratios reflect how major financial figures connect within Dongfeng. This data is based on the latest available financial reporting cycle.