DFA Municipal Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Regression
| DMREX Fund | USD 10.80 -0.01 -0.09% |
This page provides Simple Regression reference data for Dfa Municipal Real, calculated from historical daily prices. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Dfa Municipal Real on the next trading day is expected to be 10.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.66.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Dfa Municipal Real historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. DFA Municipal's Simple Regression reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Dfa Municipal Real on the next trading day is expected to be 10.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.66 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DFA Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DFA Municipal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest DFA Municipal | DFA Municipal Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Dfa Municipal Real focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 10.72 and upside around 10.84 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DFA Municipal mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DFA Municipal mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.531 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0108 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.001 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.6561 |
Other Forecasting Options for DFA Municipal
The price movement of DFA is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. DFA Mutual Fund price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.DFA Municipal Related Equities
The following equities are related to DFA Municipal within the Muni National Short space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing DFA Municipal against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
DFA Municipal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to DFA Municipal mutual fund help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Dfa Municipal Real.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.8 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 79.18 |
DFA Municipal Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for DFA Municipal is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in DFA Municipal's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0478 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.0629 | |||
| Variance | 0.004 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0104 | |||
| Semi Variance | -0.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.11 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for DFA Municipal
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Dfa Municipal Real can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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