Delaware Limited-Term Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| DLTZX Fund | USD 7.87 0.01 0.13% |
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Delaware Limited Term Diversified. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Delaware Limited Term Diversified on the next trading day is expected to be 7.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0045 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.27.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Delaware Limited-Term observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Delaware Limited Term Diversified observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Delaware Limited Term Diversified is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Delaware Limited Term Diversified on the next trading day is expected to be 7.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0045 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.000072 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.27 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Delaware Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Delaware Limited-Term's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
Forecasting Delaware Limited Term Diversified for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 7.76 on the downside to about 7.98 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Delaware Limited-Term mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Delaware Limited-Term mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0045 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 6.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.27 |
Other Forecasting Options for Delaware Limited-Term
Delaware Limited-Term's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Delaware often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.Delaware Limited-Term Related Equities
These related stocks within the Short-Term Bond space give benchmarks for judging Delaware Limited-Term's results, margins, and growth trend. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for Delaware Limited-Term's results. Peer pricing works best when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Delaware Limited-Term Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Delaware Limited-Term mutual fund reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Delaware Limited Term Diversified.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.87 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.87 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.005 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 41.65 |
Delaware Limited-Term Risk Indicators
The analysis of Delaware Limited-Term's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Delaware Limited-Term's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0571 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.0515 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1055 | |||
| Variance | 0.0111 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0214 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0026 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.19 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Delaware Limited-Term
A coverage review of Delaware Limited Term Diversified shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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