Diversified Healthcare Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| DHC Stock | USD 6.93 0.22 3.28% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing reference data for Diversified Healthcare is derived from the equity's published trading history. The resulting forecast and deviation statistics are presented as reference data for informational context. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Diversified Healthcare Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 6.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.75.When Diversified Healthcare Trust prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Diversified Healthcare Trust trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Diversified Healthcare observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The forecast reference data presented here for Diversified Healthcare Trust reflects Double Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Diversified Healthcare Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 6.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.75 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Diversified Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Diversified Healthcare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Diversified Healthcare | Diversified Healthcare Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Diversified Healthcare Trust focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 4.09 on the downside to about 9.77 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Diversified Healthcare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Diversified Healthcare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0189 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1483 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0235 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for Diversified Healthcare
Fibonacci retracement levels applied to Diversified Stock price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in Diversified occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from Diversified Healthcare's historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves.Diversified Healthcare Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of Diversified Healthcare within the Real Estate space and offer context for ranking and strength. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across Diversified Healthcare's peer group.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Diversified Healthcare Market Strength Events
Tracking market strength indicators for Diversified Healthcare provides context for understanding stock momentum dynamics. Tracking these indicators helps identify periods where trading Diversified Healthcare is likely to be most rewarding. These tools are essential for timing trades in Diversified Healthcare Trust with a quantitative framework.
Diversified Healthcare Risk Indicators
Properly assessing Diversified Healthcare's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Diversified Healthcare's. Analyzing Diversified Healthcare's risk indicators provides a critical input for investment risk management.
| Mean Deviation | 2.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Variance | 8.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.28 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.55 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Diversified Healthcare
Story coverage around Diversified Healthcare Trust often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Diversified Healthcare Short Properties
A short-interest review of Diversified Healthcare Trust provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 240.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 105.4 M |