World Ex Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Regression
| DFWVX Fund | USD 17.64 -0.44 -2.43% |
This reference page covers Simple Regression forecast output for World Ex Val, including the projected price and deviation metrics. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of World Ex Val on the next trading day is expected to be 18.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.19.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as World Ex Val historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. All forecast values on this page for World Ex Val are Simple Regression reference data derived from historical price series. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of World Ex Val on the next trading day is expected to be 18.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.33 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.19 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict World Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that World Ex's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest World Ex | World Ex Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for World Ex Val uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of World Ex mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent World Ex mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0049 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4949 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0268 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.187 |
Other Forecasting Options for World Ex
Price movement is the most critical factor for any investor assessing the potential of World as an investment. The noise inherent in World Mutual Fund price charts can obscure the underlying direction and make investment decisions more challenging.World Ex Related Equities
The following equities are related to World Ex within the Foreign Large Value space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing World Ex against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
World Ex Market Strength Events
For investors in World Ex Val, market strength indicators provide essential context about how the mutual fund responds to prevailing market trends. These tools support more informed decisions about when to trade World Ex for maximum effect.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.64 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.64 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.22 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.44 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 40.42 |
World Ex Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing World Ex's risk indicators provides investors with important context for price forecasting and investment decision-making. By understanding how much risk is embedded in World Ex's investment, investors can make better choices about position sizing,.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6875 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9465 | |||
| Variance | 0.8959 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.42 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.07 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.71 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for World Ex
A coverage review of World Ex Val shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.