DEFSEC Technologies Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| DFSC Stock | 1.88 0.03 1.62% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DEFSEC Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 1.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.75. DEFSEC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast DEFSEC Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of DEFSEC Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of DEFSEC Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength indicator of DEFSEC Technologies' share price is approaching 36 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling DEFSEC Technologies, making its price go up or down. Momentum 36
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth 3.302 |
Using DEFSEC Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of DEFSEC Technologies from the perspective of DEFSEC Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DEFSEC Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 1.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.75. DEFSEC Technologies after-hype prediction price | USD 1.88 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DEFSEC Technologies to cross-verify your projections. DEFSEC Technologies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine DEFSEC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for DEFSEC using various technical indicators. When you analyze DEFSEC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
DEFSEC Technologies Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DEFSEC Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 1.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DEFSEC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DEFSEC Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
DEFSEC Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest DEFSEC Technologies | DEFSEC Technologies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
DEFSEC Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting DEFSEC Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. DEFSEC Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 9.81, respectively. We have considered DEFSEC Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DEFSEC Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DEFSEC Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0515 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1625 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0547 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.75 |
Predictive Modules for DEFSEC Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DEFSEC Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of DEFSEC Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
DEFSEC Technologies After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of DEFSEC Technologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in DEFSEC Technologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of DEFSEC Technologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
DEFSEC Technologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting DEFSEC Technologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on DEFSEC Technologies' historical news coverage. DEFSEC Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.09 and 9.74, respectively. We have considered DEFSEC Technologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
DEFSEC Technologies is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of DEFSEC Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.
DEFSEC Technologies Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as DEFSEC Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading DEFSEC Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with DEFSEC Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.06 | 7.92 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
1.88 | 1.88 | 0.00 |
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DEFSEC Technologies Hype Timeline
DEFSEC Technologies is currently traded for 1.88. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.13. DEFSEC is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -1.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on DEFSEC Technologies is about 6655.46%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.01. About 13.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.42. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. DEFSEC Technologies recorded a loss per share of 31.31. The entity last dividend was issued on the 22nd of September 2020. The firm had 1:21 split on the 23rd of April 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DEFSEC Technologies to cross-verify your projections.DEFSEC Technologies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to DEFSEC Technologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict DEFSEC Technologies' future price movements. Getting to know how DEFSEC Technologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how DEFSEC Technologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SUNE | SUNation Energy | 0.28 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 4.85 | (6.52) | 27.32 | |
| XPON | Expion360 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 8.43 | (8.18) | 25.64 | |
| ASTC | Astrotech Corp | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 6.67 | (8.71) | 25.08 | |
| RAYA | Erayak Power Solution | 0.28 | 21 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 13.75 | (11.45) | 49.69 | |
| RVSN | Rail Vision Ltd | 0.19 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 9.09 | (8.57) | 29.09 | |
| IVDA | Iveda Solutions | (0.01) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 14.78 | (12.00) | 50.60 | |
| GVH | Globavend Holdings Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 9.02 | (9.21) | 87.78 | |
| BKYI | BIO Key International | 0.19 | 4 per month | 5.90 | (0.01) | 9.26 | (9.71) | 69.05 | |
| INTJ | Intelligent Group Limited | (0.01) | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 7.41 | (10.42) | 25.67 | |
| MNTS | Momentus | 0.28 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 17.86 | (17.01) | 70.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for DEFSEC Technologies
For every potential investor in DEFSEC, whether a beginner or expert, DEFSEC Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DEFSEC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DEFSEC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying DEFSEC Technologies' price trends.DEFSEC Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with DEFSEC Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of DEFSEC Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing DEFSEC Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
DEFSEC Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how DEFSEC Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading DEFSEC Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying DEFSEC Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify DEFSEC Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
DEFSEC Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of DEFSEC Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DEFSEC Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting defsec stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.65 | |||
| Variance | 58.59 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for DEFSEC Technologies
The number of cover stories for DEFSEC Technologies depends on current market conditions and DEFSEC Technologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that DEFSEC Technologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about DEFSEC Technologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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DEFSEC Technologies Short Properties
DEFSEC Technologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when DEFSEC Technologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of DEFSEC Technologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential DEFSEC Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. DEFSEC Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 610.2 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DEFSEC Technologies to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade DEFSEC Stock refer to our How to Trade DEFSEC Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of DEFSEC Technologies. If investors know DEFSEC will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about DEFSEC Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (31.31) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 3.302 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of DEFSEC Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of DEFSEC that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of DEFSEC Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is DEFSEC Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because DEFSEC Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect DEFSEC Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between DEFSEC Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if DEFSEC Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, DEFSEC Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.