Dell Technologies Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

DELL Stock  USD 117.17  3.91  3.45%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dell Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 117.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 164.92. Dell Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the value of RSI of Dell Technologies' share price is approaching 38 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Dell Technologies, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 38

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Dell Technologies' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Dell Technologies and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Dell Technologies' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Dell Technologies, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Dell Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dell Technologies from the perspective of Dell Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dell Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 117.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 164.92.

Dell Technologies after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 117.17  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dell Technologies to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Dell Stock please use our How to buy in Dell Stock guide.

Dell Technologies Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Dell price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dell using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dell charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Dell Technologies simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Dell Technologies are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Dell Technologies prices get older.

Dell Technologies Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dell Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 117.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.75, mean absolute percentage error of 13.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 164.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dell Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dell Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dell Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Dell TechnologiesDell Technologies Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Dell Technologies Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Dell Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dell Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 114.46 and 119.88, respectively. We have considered Dell Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
117.17
114.46
Downside
117.17
Expected Value
119.88
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dell Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dell Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.8408
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.6797
MADMean absolute deviation2.7487
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0211
SAESum of the absolute errors164.92
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Dell Technologies forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Dell Technologies observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Dell Technologies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dell Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
114.46117.17119.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
106.26108.97128.89
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
112.76122.27131.77
Details

Dell Technologies After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Dell Technologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dell Technologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Dell Technologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Dell Technologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Dell Technologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dell Technologies' historical news coverage. Dell Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 114.46 and 119.88, respectively. We have considered Dell Technologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
117.17
114.46
Downside
117.17
After-hype Price
119.88
Upside
Dell Technologies is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dell Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.

Dell Technologies Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Dell Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dell Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dell Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.45 
2.71
 0.00  
  0.05 
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
117.17
117.17
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Dell Technologies Hype Timeline

Dell Technologies is currently traded for 117.17. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.05. Dell is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.45%. %. The volatility of related hype on Dell Technologies is about 2631.07%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 117.22. About 76.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.47. Dell Technologies recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.48. The entity last dividend was issued on the 20th of January 2026. The firm had 1973:1000 split on the 2nd of November 2021. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dell Technologies to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Dell Stock please use our How to buy in Dell Stock guide.

Dell Technologies Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Dell Technologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dell Technologies' future price movements. Getting to know how Dell Technologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dell Technologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
NTESNetEase 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.12) 4.20 (3.11) 11.29 
MSTRMicroStrategy Incorporated 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.24) 5.78 (7.55) 15.68 
RBLXRoblox Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.25) 3.38 (6.18) 20.20 
CDNSCadence Design Systems 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.13) 2.67 (3.06) 9.36 
WDCWestern Digital 0.00 0 per month 3.12  0.21  8.75 (5.90) 25.65 
FIFI Old 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.34) 3.36 (44.04) 45.14 
MSIMotorola Solutions 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.19) 1.52 (2.19) 6.99 
INFYInfosys Ltd ADR 0.00 0 per month 1.64  0.01  3.57 (2.59) 13.18 
STXSeagate Technology PLC 0.00 0 per month 3.49  0.14  6.87 (6.71) 26.83 
ADIAnalog Devices 1.03 10 per month 1.27  0.15  3.16 (2.35) 7.99 

Other Forecasting Options for Dell Technologies

For every potential investor in Dell, whether a beginner or expert, Dell Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dell Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dell. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dell Technologies' price trends.

Dell Technologies Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dell Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dell Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dell Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dell Technologies Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dell Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dell Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dell Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Dell Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Dell Technologies Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dell Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dell Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dell stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Dell Technologies

The number of cover stories for Dell Technologies depends on current market conditions and Dell Technologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dell Technologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dell Technologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Dell Technologies Short Properties

Dell Technologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when Dell Technologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Dell Technologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Dell Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dell Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding724 M
Cash And Short Term Investments3.6 B
When determining whether Dell Technologies is a strong investment it is important to analyze Dell Technologies' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Dell Technologies' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Dell Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dell Technologies to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Dell Stock please use our How to buy in Dell Stock guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dell Technologies. If investors know Dell will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Dell Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Dell Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Dell that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Dell Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Dell Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Dell Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Dell Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Dell Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Dell Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dell Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.