DUNHAM MONTHLY Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| DCMDX Fund | USD 17.11 0.03 0.18% |
Dunham Monthly Distribution's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices for DUNHAM MONTHLY. This page is updated as new daily closing prices become available for DUNHAM MONTHLY.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dunham Monthly Distribution on the next trading day is expected to be 17.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.73.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Dunham Monthly Distribution forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent DUNHAM MONTHLY observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Dunham Monthly Distribution are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dunham Monthly Distribution on the next trading day is expected to be 17.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0003 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.73 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DUNHAM Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DUNHAM MONTHLY's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
Forecasting Dunham Monthly Distribution for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. At the moment, the model places downside around 17.01 and upside around 17.21 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DUNHAM MONTHLY mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DUNHAM MONTHLY mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.9197 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.003 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.012 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 7.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.7304 |
Other Forecasting Options for DUNHAM MONTHLY
Bollinger Bands applied to DUNHAM Mutual Fund price data measure how far DUNHAM has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to DUNHAM MONTHLY's price data. On-balance volume for DUNHAM Mutual Fund creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in DUNHAM. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for DUNHAM MONTHLY's.DUNHAM MONTHLY Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of DUNHAM MONTHLY within the Event Driven space and offer context for ranking and strength. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for DUNHAM MONTHLY's results. When DUNHAM MONTHLY breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
DUNHAM MONTHLY Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Dunham Monthly Distribution, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of mutual fund behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around Dunham Monthly Distribution positions. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in DUNHAM MONTHLY. These metrics provide actionable context for both entry and risk management decisions around Dunham Monthly Distribution.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.11 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.11 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.015 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.03 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 60.04 |
DUNHAM MONTHLY Risk Indicators
Analyzing DUNHAM MONTHLY's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for dunham mutual fund. By identifying the level of risk embedded in DUNHAM MONTHLY's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing. Analyzing DUNHAM MONTHLY's risk indicators gives investors important context for price forecasting. Understanding the risk in DUNHAM MONTHLY's investment allows investors to make informed choices about mitigating exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0686 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.0949 | |||
| Variance | 0.009 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0132 | |||
| Semi Variance | -0.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.10 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for DUNHAM MONTHLY
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Dunham Monthly Distribution can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.