California Water Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CWT Stock | USD 43.40 -0.94 -2.12% |
California Water's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is presented on this page, derived from the application of the forecasting model to historical closing prices. Projected values and accuracy measures are included for reference.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of California Water Service on the next trading day is expected to be 43.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.03.When California Water Service prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any California Water Service trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent California Water observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing reference information for California Water is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of California Water Service on the next trading day is expected to be 43.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.58 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.03 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict California Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that California Water's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest California Water | California Water Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting California Water Service for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of California Water stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent California Water stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0768 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5937 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0133 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 35.0267 |
Other Forecasting Options for California Water
For any investor considering California, California Water's price movement is the central factor in determining investment viability. The noise present in California Stock price charts can distort investment decisions if not properly addressed.California Water Related Equities
The following equities are related to California Water within the Utilities space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing California Water against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
California Water Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for California Water stock help investors evaluate the security's behavior relative to ongoing market conditions. These tools support better market timing and help identify entry and exit signals for California Water Service.
California Water Risk Indicators
The analysis of California Water's basic risk indicators is a key input for accurate price forecasting and sound investment decisions. Understanding the risk in California Water's investment allows investors to make informed choices about accepting or mitigating that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Variance | 2.14 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.46 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.15 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.08 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for California Water
Coverage intensity for California Water Service matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
California Water Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to California Water Service matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 59.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 51.8 M |
Additional Tools for California Stock Analysis
| Portfolio Prophet Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities | |
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences | |
| Odds Of Bankruptcy Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Bollinger Bands Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon | |
| Price Ceiling Movement Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments | |
| Global Markets Map Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes | |
| Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation |