Curtiss Wright Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

CW Stock  USD 649.68  0.60  0.09%   
Curtiss Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength indicator of Curtiss Wright's stock price is slightly above 61 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Curtiss, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 61

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Curtiss Wright's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Curtiss Wright and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Curtiss Wright's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Curtiss Wright, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Curtiss Wright's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.145
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
3.6665
EPS Estimate Current Year
13.1274
EPS Estimate Next Year
14.6116
Wall Street Target Price
638.1429
Using Curtiss Wright hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Curtiss Wright from the perspective of Curtiss Wright response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Curtiss Wright using Curtiss Wright's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Curtiss using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Curtiss Wright's stock price.

Curtiss Wright Short Interest

An investor who is long Curtiss Wright may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Curtiss Wright and may potentially protect profits, hedge Curtiss Wright with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
497.7121
Short Percent
0.0093
Short Ratio
1.24
Shares Short Prior Month
357.8 K
50 Day MA
573.7964

Curtiss Relative Strength Index

The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Curtiss Wright on the next trading day is expected to be 652.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 553.12.

Curtiss Wright Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Curtiss Wright's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Curtiss. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Curtiss can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Curtiss Wright. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Curtiss Wright's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Curtiss Wright.

Curtiss Wright Implied Volatility

    
  0.51  
Curtiss Wright's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Curtiss Wright stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Curtiss Wright's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Curtiss Wright stock will not fluctuate a lot when Curtiss Wright's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Curtiss Wright on the next trading day is expected to be 652.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 553.12.

Curtiss Wright after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 647.56  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Curtiss Wright to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Curtiss Stock please use our How to Invest in Curtiss Wright guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Curtiss contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Curtiss Wright will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0319% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Curtiss Wright trading at USD 649.68, that is roughly USD 0.21 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Curtiss Wright's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Curtiss Wright options at the current volatility level of 0.51%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Curtiss Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Curtiss Wright's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Curtiss Wright's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Curtiss Wright stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Curtiss Wright's open interest, investors have to compare it to Curtiss Wright's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Curtiss Wright is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Curtiss. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Curtiss Wright Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Curtiss price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Curtiss using various technical indicators. When you analyze Curtiss charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Curtiss Wright - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Curtiss Wright prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Curtiss Wright price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Curtiss Wright.

Curtiss Wright Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Curtiss Wright on the next trading day is expected to be 652.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.37, mean absolute percentage error of 129.98, and the sum of the absolute errors of 553.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Curtiss Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Curtiss Wright's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Curtiss Wright Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Curtiss Wright  Curtiss Wright Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Curtiss Wright Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Curtiss Wright's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Curtiss Wright's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 650.49 and 654.37, respectively. We have considered Curtiss Wright's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
649.68
650.49
Downside
652.43
Expected Value
654.37
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Curtiss Wright stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Curtiss Wright stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.8164
MADMean absolute deviation9.3749
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0163
SAESum of the absolute errors553.1178
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Curtiss Wright observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Curtiss Wright observations.

Predictive Modules for Curtiss Wright

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Curtiss Wright. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Curtiss Wright's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
645.62647.56714.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
560.76562.70714.65
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
529.54608.61687.68
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
580.71638.14708.34
Details

Curtiss Wright After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Curtiss Wright at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Curtiss Wright or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Curtiss Wright, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Curtiss Wright Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Curtiss Wright's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Curtiss Wright's historical news coverage. Curtiss Wright's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 645.62 and 714.65, respectively. We have considered Curtiss Wright's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
649.68
645.62
Downside
647.56
After-hype Price
714.65
Upside
Curtiss Wright is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Curtiss Wright is based on 3 months time horizon.

Curtiss Wright Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Curtiss Wright is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Curtiss Wright backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Curtiss Wright, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.15 
1.94
  2.12 
  0.66 
5 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
649.68
647.56
0.33 
13.73  
Notes

Curtiss Wright Hype Timeline

As of January 27, 2026 Curtiss Wright is listed for 649.68. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.66. Curtiss is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 647.56. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 13.73%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.33%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Curtiss Wright is about 44.31%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 650.34. About 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.71. Curtiss Wright recorded earning per share (EPS) of 12.28. The entity last dividend was issued on the 28th of November 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 24th of April 2006. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Curtiss Wright to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Curtiss Stock please use our How to Invest in Curtiss Wright guide.

Curtiss Wright Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Curtiss Wright's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Curtiss Wright's future price movements. Getting to know how Curtiss Wright's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Curtiss Wright may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ESLTElbit Systems 11.72 10 per month 1.36  0.25  3.77 (2.68) 10.89 
BWXTBWX Technologies 5.12 9 per month 3.10 (0.01) 4.28 (5.42) 14.18 
WWDWoodward 4.42 6 per month 1.25  0.15  3.61 (2.23) 16.03 
AERAerCap Holdings NV(2.43)8 per month 0.68  0.14  2.39 (1.63) 11.63 
VLTOVeralto 0.46 5 per month 0.00 (0.08) 1.43 (1.70) 8.53 
HUBBHubbell 14.12 8 per month 1.64  0.06  3.55 (2.91) 8.35 
DOVDover 5.30 5 per month 0.92  0.15  3.12 (2.09) 10.70 
AVAVAeroVironment 0.95 8 per month 0.00 (0.07) 5.91 (7.75) 31.86 
NVTnVent Electric PLC 4.64 8 per month 2.69  0.04  3.80 (3.99) 16.83 
TXTTextron(0.52)8 per month 0.92  0.1  2.26 (1.64) 4.67 

Other Forecasting Options for Curtiss Wright

For every potential investor in Curtiss, whether a beginner or expert, Curtiss Wright's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Curtiss Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Curtiss. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Curtiss Wright's price trends.

Curtiss Wright Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Curtiss Wright stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Curtiss Wright could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Curtiss Wright by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Curtiss Wright Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Curtiss Wright stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Curtiss Wright shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Curtiss Wright stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Curtiss Wright entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Curtiss Wright Risk Indicators

The analysis of Curtiss Wright's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Curtiss Wright's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting curtiss stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Curtiss Wright

The number of cover stories for Curtiss Wright depends on current market conditions and Curtiss Wright's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Curtiss Wright is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Curtiss Wright's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Curtiss Wright Short Properties

Curtiss Wright's future price predictability will typically decrease when Curtiss Wright's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Curtiss Wright often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Curtiss Wright's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Curtiss Wright's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding38.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments385 M

Additional Tools for Curtiss Stock Analysis

When running Curtiss Wright's price analysis, check to measure Curtiss Wright's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Curtiss Wright is operating at the current time. Most of Curtiss Wright's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Curtiss Wright's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Curtiss Wright's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Curtiss Wright to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.