PIONEER DISCIPLINED Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CVCFX Fund | USD 15.78 -0.11 -0.69% |
This page provides Double Exponential Smoothing reference data for Pioneer Disciplined Value, calculated from historical daily prices. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pioneer Disciplined Value on the next trading day is expected to be 15.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.17.When Pioneer Disciplined Value prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Pioneer Disciplined Value trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent PIONEER DISCIPLINED observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. PIONEER DISCIPLINED's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pioneer Disciplined Value on the next trading day is expected to be 15.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.17 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PIONEER Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PIONEER DISCIPLINED's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
Forecasting Pioneer Disciplined Value for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 14.92 on the downside to about 16.51 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PIONEER DISCIPLINED mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PIONEER DISCIPLINED mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0203 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1046 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0064 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.1694 |
Other Forecasting Options for PIONEER DISCIPLINED
The price movement of PIONEER is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. PIONEER Mutual Fund price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.PIONEER DISCIPLINED Related Equities
The following equities are related to PIONEER DISCIPLINED within the Large Value space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing PIONEER DISCIPLINED against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PIONEER DISCIPLINED Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to PIONEER DISCIPLINED mutual fund help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Pioneer Disciplined Value.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.78 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.78 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.06 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.11 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 37.74 |
PIONEER DISCIPLINED Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for PIONEER DISCIPLINED is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in PIONEER DISCIPLINED's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5864 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7754 | |||
| Variance | 0.6013 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PIONEER DISCIPLINED
A coverage review of Pioneer Disciplined Value shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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