CITIC Pink Sheet Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CTPCF Stock | USD 1.43 0.00 0.00% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for CITIC Limited is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CITIC Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 1.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.80.When CITIC Limited prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any CITIC Limited trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent CITIC observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for CITIC Limited are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CITIC Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 1.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0033 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.80 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CITIC Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CITIC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CITIC | CITIC Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates CITIC's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 0.01 and upside near 5.02.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CITIC pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CITIC pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0058 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0136 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0092 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.8 |
Other Forecasting Options for CITIC
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering CITIC needs to understand the dynamics of CITIC's price movement. Price charts for CITIC Pink Sheet contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.CITIC Related Equities
The following equities are related to CITIC within the Conglomerates space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing CITIC against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CITIC Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for CITIC enables investors to understand how the pink sheet performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in CITIC Limited.
CITIC Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing CITIC's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process helps investors quantify the risk associated with CITIC's and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9939 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.42 | |||
| Variance | 11.69 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CITIC
Coverage intensity for CITIC Limited matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Other Information on Investing in CITIC Pink Sheet
Financial ratios for CITIC help frame valuation context across profits, cash flow, and enterprise value. They help compare CITIC across valuation measures in a consistent way.