CSW Industrials Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| CSW Stock | 335.19 5.08 1.54% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CSW Industrials on the next trading day is expected to be 317.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 514.19. CSW Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of CSW Industrials' stock price is slightly above 64 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling CSW, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using CSW Industrials hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CSW Industrials from the perspective of CSW Industrials response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CSW Industrials on the next trading day is expected to be 317.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 514.19. CSW Industrials after-hype prediction price | USD 335.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CSW Industrials to cross-verify your projections. CSW Industrials Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CSW price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CSW using various technical indicators. When you analyze CSW charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CSW Industrials Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CSW Industrials on the next trading day is expected to be 317.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.43, mean absolute percentage error of 120.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 514.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CSW Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CSW Industrials' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CSW Industrials Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CSW Industrials | CSW Industrials Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CSW Industrials Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CSW Industrials' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CSW Industrials' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 314.86 and 319.61, respectively. We have considered CSW Industrials' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CSW Industrials stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CSW Industrials stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.9046 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 8.4293 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0294 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 514.1902 |
Predictive Modules for CSW Industrials
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CSW Industrials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CSW Industrials' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CSW Industrials After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CSW Industrials at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CSW Industrials or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CSW Industrials, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CSW Industrials Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CSW Industrials' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CSW Industrials' historical news coverage. CSW Industrials' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 332.82 and 337.56, respectively. We have considered CSW Industrials' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CSW Industrials is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CSW Industrials is based on 3 months time horizon.
CSW Industrials Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CSW Industrials is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CSW Industrials backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CSW Industrials, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.54 | 2.37 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 6 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
335.19 | 335.19 | 0.00 |
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CSW Industrials Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of January CSW Industrials is traded for 335.19. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. CSW is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.54%. %. The volatility of related hype on CSW Industrials is about 1267.38%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 335.09. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.41. CSW Industrials had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CSW Industrials to cross-verify your projections.CSW Industrials Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CSW Industrials' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CSW Industrials' future price movements. Getting to know how CSW Industrials' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CSW Industrials may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FELE | Franklin Electric Co | (0.11) | 13 per month | 1.06 | (0.01) | 2.56 | (1.71) | 6.31 | |
| MWA | Mueller Water Products | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.46 | (0.02) | 2.38 | (1.95) | 5.42 | |
| CXT | Crane NXT Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 2.60 | (4.02) | 8.12 | |
| KAI | Kadant Inc | (0.02) | 17 per month | 1.72 | 0.05 | 4.03 | (2.93) | 10.20 | |
| AGX | Argan Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.83 | 0.09 | 7.17 | (7.35) | 22.90 | |
| LSTR | Landstar System | (0.98) | 11 per month | 1.13 | 0.14 | 3.40 | (2.03) | 6.34 | |
| NPO | Enpro Industries | (0.11) | 15 per month | 2.56 | (0.01) | 3.53 | (3.85) | 9.97 | |
| GVA | Granite Construction Incorporated | (0.54) | 10 per month | 0.84 | 0.10 | 2.34 | (1.74) | 5.83 | |
| MDU | MDU Resources Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.26 | (0.02) | 1.79 | (2.13) | 8.59 | |
| MSM | MSC Industrial Direct | (0.11) | 8 per month | 1.68 | (0.01) | 3.10 | (3.15) | 10.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for CSW Industrials
For every potential investor in CSW, whether a beginner or expert, CSW Industrials' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CSW Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CSW. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CSW Industrials' price trends.CSW Industrials Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CSW Industrials stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CSW Industrials could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CSW Industrials by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CSW Industrials Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CSW Industrials stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CSW Industrials shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CSW Industrials stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CSW Industrials entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CSW Industrials Risk Indicators
The analysis of CSW Industrials' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CSW Industrials' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting csw stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Variance | 5.63 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.92) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CSW Industrials
The number of cover stories for CSW Industrials depends on current market conditions and CSW Industrials' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CSW Industrials is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CSW Industrials' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CSW Industrials Short Properties
CSW Industrials' future price predictability will typically decrease when CSW Industrials' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CSW Industrials often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CSW Industrials' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CSW Industrials' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 225.8 M |
Additional Tools for CSW Stock Analysis
When running CSW Industrials' price analysis, check to measure CSW Industrials' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CSW Industrials is operating at the current time. Most of CSW Industrials' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CSW Industrials' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CSW Industrials' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CSW Industrials to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.