Carriage Services Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| CSV Stock | USD 41.95 0.08 0.19% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.168 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.9 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.434 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.73 | Wall Street Target Price 60 |
The hype-based summary links Carriage Services attention patterns with price response and peers. This module tracks sentiment for Carriage Services using options positioning and short interest signals.
Carriage Services Short Interest Overview
For Carriage Services investors, short interest trends complement other technical and fundamental signals. A stock with high short interest and improving fundamentals is often a strong candidate for a price recovery.
200 Day MA 44.1415 | Short Percent 0.0223 | Short Ratio 3.31 | Shares Short Prior Month 327.1 K | 50 Day MA 43.5326 |
RSI Summary for Carriage
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Carriage Services on the next trading day is expected to be 41.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.58.Carriage Services Hype Impact Pattern
Tracking public sentiment around Carriage Services quantifies the psychological premium or discount embedded in Carriage Services' current price. Extreme sentiment readings frequently mark turning points in the stock.
The ratio of positive to negative sentiment signals around Carriage Services provides a composite view of how the stock is perceived by the market. A sharp shift in this ratio often precedes a change in price direction.
Carriage Services Implied Volatility | 0.68 |
Carriage Services' implied volatility tends to be mean-reverting. Periods of extremely high implied volatility in Carriage Services options are often followed by a contraction as uncertainty resolves, eroding the value of recently purchased options.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Carriage Services on the next trading day is expected to be 41.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.58.Carriage Services after-hype prediction price | $ 42.02 |
Attention metrics here are presented with forecasting, technical, analyst, and earnings context.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carriage Services provides a cross-check on projections for Carriage Services. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Rule 16 Summary for current Carriage contract - Volatility Context
Rule 16 converts implied volatility into an estimated daily move of about 0.0425% for 2026-04-17 options. With Carriage Services trading near $ 41.95, that translates to about $ 0.0178 per day in either direction.
Carriage Open Interest: 2026-04-17 Options
Open interest for Carriage Services describes outstanding contracts and gives a view of market engagement.
Carriage Services Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Carriage price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Carriage using various technical indicators. When you analyze Carriage charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 15th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Carriage Services on the next trading day is expected to be 41.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.54 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.58 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Carriage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Carriage Services' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Carriage Services | Carriage Services Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Carriage Services uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Carriage Services stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Carriage Services stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.3349 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5578 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0128 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34.5828 |
Mean reversion in Carriage Services is more reliable over longer time horizons. Short-term deviations can persist and even widen before correcting, making position sizing and risk management critical.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Investors who rely solely on expected value estimates for Carriage Services miss the full picture. Carriage Services' probability distribution reveals that expected value can be achieved through very different combinations of outcomes, each with different risk implications.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The after-news price analysis for Carriage Services is built on the observation that Carriage Services' market reactions to news are not random but follow recognizable patterns. Carriage Services' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.71 and 43.33, respectively. Identifying and quantifying these patterns for Carriage Services is the core purpose of this model.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Carriage Services assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Carriage Services is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Carriage Services backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Carriage Services, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.31 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 10 Events | 8 Events | In 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
41.95 | 42.02 | 0.17 |
|
Hype Timeline
On the 14th of March 2026 Carriage Services is traded for 41.95. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Carriage is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 42.02 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 0.17%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Carriage Services is about 8733.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.95. The company reported last year's revenue of 417.44 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 51.51 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 159.84 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in 10 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carriage Services provides a cross-check on projections for Carriage Services. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
The information ratio and semi-deviation metrics in the peer comparison table for Carriage Services provide a risk-adjusted view of how efficiently Carriage Services' competitors convert news exposure into returns relative to downside risk.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BBW | Build A Bear Workshop | -1.17 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.08 | 3.79 | -6.39 | 13.06 | |
| PLOW | Douglas Dynamics | 0.60 | 7 per month | 1.30 | 0.24 | 3.90 | -2.80 | 8.47 | |
| CBRL | Cracker Barrel Old | -0.16 | 8 per month | 3.01 | 0.05 | 6.40 | -5.07 | 13.74 | |
| MYE | Myers Industries | 0.09 | 8 per month | 1.52 | 0.12 | 3.38 | -2.59 | 9.97 | |
| BZH | Beazer Homes USA | 0.96 | 6 per month | 0.00 | -0.01 | 5.19 | -3.40 | 19.78 | |
| CARS | Cars Inc | -0.91 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.20 | 2.94 | -5.85 | 20.18 | |
| ETD | Ethan Allen Interiors | 0.61 | 7 per month | 0.00 | -0.02 | 2.93 | -2.92 | 10.75 | |
| BALY | Ballys Corp | -0.18 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.07 | 5.51 | -6.17 | 16.79 | |
| AXL | American Axle Manufacturing | -0.12 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.04 | 8.55 | -4.67 | 23.81 | |
| LIND | Lindblad Expeditions Holdings | 0.13 | 9 per month | 1.77 | 0.16 | 4.10 | -3.64 | 17.12 |
Other Forecasting Options for Carriage Services
For investors considering Carriage, Carriage Services' price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in Carriage Stock price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.Carriage Services Related Equities
The following equities are related to Carriage Services within the Consumer Discretionary space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Carriage Services against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Carriage Services Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Carriage Services provide investors with a view of how the stock performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in Carriage Services.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1803.19 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.092 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 41.84 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 41.87 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.16 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.08 |
Carriage Services Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of Carriage Services' risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in Carriage Services' allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Variance | 1.75 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.55 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.48 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Carriage Services
Coverage intensity for Carriage Services matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Carriage Services Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Carriage Services matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 15.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 M |
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