Castle Biosciences Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| CSTL Stock | USD 42.24 0.09 0.21% |
Castle Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Castle Biosciences' share price is above 70 as of now suggesting that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Castle, making its price go up or down. Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Castle Biosciences hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Castle Biosciences from the perspective of Castle Biosciences response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Castle Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 43.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 120.52. Castle Biosciences after-hype prediction price | USD 42.24 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Castle Biosciences to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Castle Stock please use our How to buy in Castle Stock guide.Castle Biosciences Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Castle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Castle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Castle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Castle Biosciences Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Castle Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 43.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.98, mean absolute percentage error of 7.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 120.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Castle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Castle Biosciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Castle Biosciences Stock Forecast Pattern
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Castle Biosciences Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Castle Biosciences' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Castle Biosciences' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40.23 and 47.01, respectively. We have considered Castle Biosciences' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Castle Biosciences stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Castle Biosciences stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.071 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9758 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0591 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 120.5236 |
Predictive Modules for Castle Biosciences
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Castle Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Castle Biosciences' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Castle Biosciences After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Castle Biosciences at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Castle Biosciences or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Castle Biosciences, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Castle Biosciences Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Castle Biosciences' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Castle Biosciences' historical news coverage. Castle Biosciences' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 38.85 and 45.63, respectively. We have considered Castle Biosciences' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Castle Biosciences is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Castle Biosciences is based on 3 months time horizon.
Castle Biosciences Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Castle Biosciences is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Castle Biosciences backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Castle Biosciences, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.97 | 3.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
42.24 | 42.24 | 0.00 |
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Castle Biosciences Hype Timeline
Castle Biosciences is currently traded for 42.24. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Castle is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.97%. %. The volatility of related hype on Castle Biosciences is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 42.24. About 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Castle Biosciences was currently reported as 16.02. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.44. Castle Biosciences had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Castle Biosciences to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Castle Stock please use our How to buy in Castle Stock guide.Castle Biosciences Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Castle Biosciences' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Castle Biosciences' future price movements. Getting to know how Castle Biosciences' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Castle Biosciences may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MYGN | Myriad Genetics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.67 | (4.05) | 22.77 | |
| CDNA | CareDx Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.95 | 0.13 | 8.08 | (4.53) | 23.04 | |
| PSNL | Personalis | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.10 | 0.03 | 14.09 | (9.60) | 34.91 | |
| FLGT | Fulgent Genetics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.23 | 0.08 | 4.24 | (2.27) | 21.74 | |
| EVH | Evolent Health | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 4.24 | (7.42) | 18.39 | |
| GERN | Geron | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.91 | 0.03 | 6.72 | (4.76) | 16.99 | |
| DRIO | DarioHealth Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.41 | (10.12) | 31.83 | |
| EMBC | Embecta Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.87 | (5.47) | 16.06 | |
| AMN | AMN Healthcare Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.85 | (0.01) | 4.49 | (3.31) | 29.87 | |
| VIR | Vir Biotechnology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.80 | 0.08 | 8.08 | (6.25) | 20.46 |
Other Forecasting Options for Castle Biosciences
For every potential investor in Castle, whether a beginner or expert, Castle Biosciences' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Castle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Castle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Castle Biosciences' price trends.Castle Biosciences Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Castle Biosciences stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Castle Biosciences could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Castle Biosciences by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Castle Biosciences Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Castle Biosciences stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Castle Biosciences shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Castle Biosciences stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Castle Biosciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Castle Biosciences Risk Indicators
The analysis of Castle Biosciences' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Castle Biosciences' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting castle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5718 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.39 | |||
| Variance | 11.52 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.327 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.60) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Castle Biosciences
The number of cover stories for Castle Biosciences depends on current market conditions and Castle Biosciences' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Castle Biosciences is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Castle Biosciences' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Castle Biosciences Short Properties
Castle Biosciences' future price predictability will typically decrease when Castle Biosciences' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Castle Biosciences often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Castle Biosciences' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Castle Biosciences' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 29.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 293.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Castle Biosciences to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Castle Stock please use our How to buy in Castle Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Castle Biosciences. If investors know Castle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Castle Biosciences listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Castle Biosciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Castle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Castle Biosciences' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Castle Biosciences' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Castle Biosciences' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Castle Biosciences' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Castle Biosciences' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Castle Biosciences is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Castle Biosciences' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.