CALVERT BOND Mutual Fund Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| CSBCX Fund | USD 14.42 -0.11 -0.76% |
The Polynomial Regression forecast reference data for Calvert Bond Portfolio is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Calvert Bond Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 14.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.07.A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the CALVERT BOND historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm All Polynomial Regression forecast figures shown for Calvert Bond Portfolio are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Calvert Bond Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 14.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0016 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.07 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CALVERT Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CALVERT BOND's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CALVERT BOND | CALVERT BOND Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Calvert Bond Portfolio uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 14.17 and upside near 14.61.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CALVERT BOND mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CALVERT BOND mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.6977 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0339 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0023 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.066 |
Other Forecasting Options for CALVERT BOND
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering CALVERT needs to understand the dynamics of CALVERT BOND's price movement. Price charts for CALVERT Mutual Fund contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.CALVERT BOND Related Equities
The following equities are related to CALVERT BOND within the Intermediate Core-Plus Bond space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing CALVERT BOND against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CALVERT BOND Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for CALVERT BOND enables investors to understand how the mutual fund performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Calvert Bond Portfolio.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.42 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.42 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.06 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.11 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 35.41 |
CALVERT BOND Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing CALVERT BOND's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process quantifies the risk associated with CALVERT BOND's and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1631 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2186 | |||
| Variance | 0.0478 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CALVERT BOND
A coverage review of Calvert Bond Portfolio shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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