Charles River Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

CRL Stock  USD 153.60  0.55  0.36%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing reference data for Charles River is derived from the equity's published trading history. The resulting forecast and deviation statistics are presented as reference data for informational context. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes. All values shown are derived from publicly available market data.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Charles River Laboratories on the next trading day is expected to be 152.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 259.89.When Charles River Laboratories prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Charles River Laboratories trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Charles River observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The forecast reference data presented here for Charles River Laboratories reflects Double Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Charles River works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Charles River Laboratories on the next trading day is expected to be 152.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.40 , mean absolute percentage error of 31.29 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 259.89 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Charles Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Charles River's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for Charles River Laboratories focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Market Value
153.60
149.53
Downside
152.47
Expected Value
155.41
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Charles River stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Charles River stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0681
MADMean absolute deviation4.4049
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0242
SAESum of the absolute errors259.8919
When Charles River Laboratories prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Charles River Laboratories trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Charles River observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Charles River

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to Charles Stock price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in Charles occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from Charles River's historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves. A volume spike without a corresponding price move can signal accumulation or distribution ahead of a directional breakout.

Charles River Related Equities

Charles River's market space within the Health Care space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for Charles River's results. Peer review is most useful when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Charles River Market Strength Events

Tracking market strength indicators for Charles River provides context for understanding stock momentum dynamics. Tracking these indicators helps identify periods where trading Charles River is likely to be most rewarding. These tools are essential for timing trades in Charles River Laboratories with a quantitative framework. Market strength indicators for Charles River Laboratories are most useful when viewed as part of a broader analytical framework.

Charles River Risk Indicators

Properly assessing Charles River's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Charles River's. Analyzing Charles River's risk indicators provides a critical input for investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Charles River's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about hedging strategies.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Charles River

Coverage intensity for Charles River Laboratories matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.

Charles River Short Properties

A short-interest review of Charles River Laboratories provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding49.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments213.8 M

More Resources for Charles Stock Analysis

A broader look at Charles River comes from its financial reports and historical data. These measures show how earnings and operations are structured.