Cohen Steers Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CREFX Fund | USD 17.89 0.12 0.68% |
Cohen Steers's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cohen Steers Real on the next trading day is expected to be 17.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.41.When Cohen Steers Real prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Cohen Steers Real trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Cohen Steers observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. Cohen Steers's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cohen Steers Real on the next trading day is expected to be 17.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.41 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cohen Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cohen Steers' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Cohen Steers' predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 16.90 and upside around 18.77 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cohen Steers mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cohen Steers mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0289 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1235 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0068 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.4078 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cohen Steers
Analyzing Cohen Steers' price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Cohen Steers' chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.Cohen Steers Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Real Estate space can help frame Cohen Steers' pricing and running costs in context. Growth rate gaps between Cohen Steers and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. Peer pricing works best when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets. This peer set gives the context needed for a well-rounded view of Cohen Steers.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cohen Steers Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Cohen Steers mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade Cohen Steers.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.89 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.89 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.06 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.12 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 44.27 |
Cohen Steers Risk Indicators
Assessing Cohen Steers' risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting Cohen Steers' future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6629 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8997 | |||
| Variance | 0.8095 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.62 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cohen Steers
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Cohen Steers Real can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.