CATALYST DYNAMIC Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| CPEIX Fund | USD 21.72 -0.67 -2.99% |
The Simple Moving Average forecast shown here for CATALYST DYNAMIC is reference data produced from the equity's historical price series. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Catalyst Dynamic Alpha on the next trading day is expected to be 22.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.09.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Catalyst Dynamic Alpha price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of CATALYST DYNAMIC. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future This Simple Moving Average reference page for CATALYST DYNAMIC presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Catalyst Dynamic Alpha on the next trading day is expected to be 22.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.12 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.09 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CATALYST Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CATALYST DYNAMIC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CATALYST DYNAMIC | CATALYST DYNAMIC Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates CATALYST DYNAMIC's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CATALYST DYNAMIC mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CATALYST DYNAMIC mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.3497 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0303 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2727 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0118 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.09 |
Other Forecasting Options for CATALYST DYNAMIC
Regardless of investment experience, understanding CATALYST DYNAMIC's price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in CATALYST. Price charts for CATALYST Mutual Fund are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.CATALYST DYNAMIC Related Equities
The following equities are related to CATALYST DYNAMIC within the Large Blend space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing CATALYST DYNAMIC against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CATALYST DYNAMIC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for CATALYST DYNAMIC give investors insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators provides context to make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading CATALYST DYNAMIC is likely to be most rewarding.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 21.72 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 21.72 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.34 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.67 |
CATALYST DYNAMIC Risk Indicators
A thorough review of CATALYST DYNAMIC's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding CATALYST DYNAMIC's.
| Mean Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Variance | 1.79 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CATALYST DYNAMIC
Coverage intensity for Catalyst Dynamic Alpha matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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