Compass Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CMPX Stock | USD 5.90 0.37 5.90% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Compass Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 5.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.47. Compass Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Compass Therapeutics' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Compass Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Compass Therapeutics from the perspective of Compass Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Compass Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 5.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.47. Compass Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 5.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compass Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Compass Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Compass price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Compass using various technical indicators. When you analyze Compass charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Compass Therapeutics Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Compass Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 5.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Compass Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Compass Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Compass Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Compass Therapeutics | Compass Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Compass Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Compass Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Compass Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.91 and 9.89, respectively. We have considered Compass Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Compass Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Compass Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.1239 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0298 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1578 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0305 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.47 |
Predictive Modules for Compass Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Compass Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Compass Therapeutics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Compass Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Compass Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Compass Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Compass Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Compass Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Compass Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Compass Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.80 and 9.66, respectively. We have considered Compass Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Compass Therapeutics is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Compass Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Compass Therapeutics Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Compass Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Compass Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Compass Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.67 | 3.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.90 | 5.73 | 4.82 |
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Compass Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Compass Therapeutics is currently traded for 5.90. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Compass is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 5.73. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -4.82%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.67%. The volatility of related hype on Compass Therapeutics is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.90. About 84.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.45. Compass Therapeutics had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compass Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Compass Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Compass Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Compass Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Compass Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Compass Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FULC | Fulcrum Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.71 | 0.05 | 11.56 | (7.84) | 53.80 | |
| FDMT | 4D Molecular Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 6.19 | (9.30) | 27.09 | |
| OCGN | Ocugen Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.54 | 0.03 | 7.25 | (7.43) | 32.50 | |
| BCYC | Bicycle Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.06 | (5.88) | 17.28 | |
| GOSS | Gossamer Bio | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.54 | 0.05 | 7.97 | (6.57) | 27.11 | |
| LXRX | Lexicon Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.71 | 0.07 | 9.86 | (5.76) | 22.57 | |
| MNPR | Monopar Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.36 | (5.27) | 18.89 | |
| CRVS | Corvus Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.37 | 0.14 | 9.63 | (5.41) | 162.51 | |
| KALV | Kalvista Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.97 | 0.14 | 8.43 | (5.03) | 25.15 | |
| OMER | Omeros | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.48 | 0.1 | 12.62 | (7.99) | 87.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for Compass Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Compass, whether a beginner or expert, Compass Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Compass Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Compass. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Compass Therapeutics' price trends.Compass Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Compass Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Compass Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Compass Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Compass Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Compass Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Compass Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Compass Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Compass Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 169471.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.80) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6.12 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6.05 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.40) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.37) |
Compass Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Compass Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Compass Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting compass stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.05 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.99 | |||
| Variance | 15.92 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.24 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.26 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Compass Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Compass Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Compass Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Compass Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Compass Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Compass Therapeutics Short Properties
Compass Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Compass Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Compass Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Compass Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Compass Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 137.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 126.7 M |
Additional Tools for Compass Stock Analysis
When running Compass Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Compass Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Compass Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Compass Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Compass Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Compass Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Compass Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.