Commercial Metals Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| CMC Stock | USD 61.95 0.32 0.52% |
This page documents Simple Moving Average forecast output for Commercial Metals as reference data. The model is applied to historical closing prices and the resulting projection and error statistics are shown below.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Commercial Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 61.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.87.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Commercial Metals price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Commercial Metals. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future The Simple Moving Average reference information for Commercial Metals is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Commercial Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 61.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.35 , mean absolute percentage error of 3.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.87 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Commercial Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Commercial Metals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Commercial Metals | Commercial Metals Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Commercial Metals focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 59.81 on the downside to about 64.09 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Commercial Metals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Commercial Metals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.3793 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1907 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3478 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0185 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 80.87 |
Other Forecasting Options for Commercial Metals
Any investor evaluating Commercial must grapple with the challenge of interpreting Commercial Metals' price movement accurately. Commercial Stock price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.Commercial Metals Related Equities
The following equities are related to Commercial Metals within the Materials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Commercial Metals against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Commercial Metals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Commercial Metals assess how the stock responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Commercial Metals.
Commercial Metals Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Commercial Metals is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Commercial Metals' investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Variance | 4.34 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Commercial Metals
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Commercial Metals can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Commercial Metals Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Commercial Metals is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 114.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |