CmbTech NV Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CMBTO Stock | 118.40 1.00 0.85% |
The forecast reference data for CmbTech NV on this page is generated using Simple Exponential Smoothing applied to historical price observations. Projected values and error measures are included as reference material.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CmbTech NV on the next trading day is expected to be 118.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 149.44.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting CmbTech NV forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent CmbTech NV observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference values for CmbTech NV are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CmbTech NV on the next trading day is expected to be 118.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.45 , mean absolute percentage error of 9.26 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 149.44 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CmbTech Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CmbTech NV's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
Forecasted Value
Forecasting CmbTech NV for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CmbTech NV stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CmbTech NV stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.336 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3134 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.4498 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0207 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 149.44 |
Other Forecasting Options for CmbTech NV
Investors at all stages of experience who consider CmbTech must develop an understanding of CmbTech NV's price dynamics. The noise embedded in CmbTech Stock price charts can create misleading signals and skew investment decisions.CmbTech NV Related Equities
The following equities are related to CmbTech NV and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing CmbTech NV against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CmbTech NV Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to CmbTech NV stock give investors a structured view of the security's momentum relative to the overall market. Using these indicators, traders can refine their timing when entering or exiting positions in CmbTech NV.
CmbTech NV Risk Indicators
Evaluating CmbTech NV's risk indicators is an important step in accurately forecasting its price and assessing the suitability of an investment. Understanding the risk profile of CmbTech NV's allows investors to make more informed decisions about position sizing and risk.
| Mean Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.56 | |||
| Variance | 6.57 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.8 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.12 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CmbTech NV
Coverage intensity for CmbTech NV matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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