Celestica Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CLS Stock | USD 290.93 18.83 6.08% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Celestica on the next trading day is expected to be 290.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 11.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 678.43. Celestica Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Celestica's share price is approaching 46 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Celestica, making its price go up or down. Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.08 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.5226 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.9267 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.4926 | Wall Street Target Price 376.6429 |
Using Celestica hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Celestica from the perspective of Celestica response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Celestica using Celestica's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Celestica using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Celestica's stock price.
Celestica Short Interest
An investor who is long Celestica may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Celestica and may potentially protect profits, hedge Celestica with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 212.7455 | Short Percent 0.034 | Short Ratio 1.66 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.1 M | 50 Day MA 311.3216 |
Celestica Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Celestica's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Celestica. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Celestica can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Celestica. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Celestica Implied Volatility | 1.17 |
Celestica's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Celestica stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Celestica's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Celestica stock will not fluctuate a lot when Celestica's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Celestica on the next trading day is expected to be 290.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 11.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 678.43. Celestica after-hype prediction price | USD 290.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Celestica | Build AI portfolio with Celestica Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Celestica contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Celestica will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0731% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Celestica trading at USD 290.93, that is roughly USD 0.21 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Celestica's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Celestica options at the current volatility level of 1.17%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Celestica Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Celestica's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Celestica's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Celestica stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Celestica's open interest, investors have to compare it to Celestica's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Celestica is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Celestica. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Celestica Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Celestica price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Celestica using various technical indicators. When you analyze Celestica charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Celestica Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Celestica on the next trading day is expected to be 290.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 11.31, mean absolute percentage error of 247.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 678.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Celestica Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Celestica's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Celestica Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Celestica | Celestica Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Celestica Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Celestica's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Celestica's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 286.00 and 295.80, respectively. We have considered Celestica's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Celestica stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Celestica stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 2.476 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 11.3072 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0365 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 678.4325 |
Predictive Modules for Celestica
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Celestica. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Celestica After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Celestica at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Celestica or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Celestica, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Celestica Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Celestica's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Celestica's historical news coverage. Celestica's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 286.06 and 295.80, respectively. We have considered Celestica's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Celestica is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Celestica is based on 3 months time horizon.
Celestica Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Celestica is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Celestica backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Celestica, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 4.90 | 0.53 | 0.14 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
290.93 | 290.93 | 0.00 |
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Celestica Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Celestica is traded for 290.93. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.53, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.14. Celestica is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 55.37%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Celestica is about 205.62%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 290.79. About 74.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.16. Celestica had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 2:1 split on the 22nd of December 1999. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Celestica to cross-verify your projections.Celestica Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Celestica's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Celestica's future price movements. Getting to know how Celestica's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Celestica may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GRMN | Garmin | 0.78 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.07 | (2.42) | 12.54 | |
| KEYS | Keysight Technologies | (4.40) | 10 per month | 1.32 | 0.17 | 2.87 | (2.83) | 13.11 | |
| FICO | Fair Isaac | (25.24) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.93 | (3.24) | 9.68 | |
| NOK | Nokia Corp ADR | 1.94 | 24 per month | 2.53 | 0.04 | 3.93 | (4.42) | 31.94 | |
| FLEX | Flex | 0.30 | 8 per month | 2.61 | (0) | 5.23 | (4.13) | 12.35 | |
| UI | Ubiquiti Networks | (6.39) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.19 | (4.07) | 22.82 | |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corp | 0.11 | 22 per month | 5.27 | 0.28 | 15.31 | (7.88) | 36.75 | |
| JBL | Jabil Circuit | (1.82) | 11 per month | 2.56 | 0.06 | 4.27 | (5.03) | 12.48 | |
| TDY | Teledyne Technologies Incorporated | 7.53 | 8 per month | 1.46 | 0.03 | 2.15 | (2.03) | 6.93 | |
| CTSH | Cognizant Technology Solutions | 3.36 | 13 per month | 0.77 | 0.18 | 3.10 | (2.07) | 8.70 |
Other Forecasting Options for Celestica
For every potential investor in Celestica, whether a beginner or expert, Celestica's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Celestica Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Celestica. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Celestica's price trends.Celestica Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Celestica stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Celestica could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Celestica by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Celestica Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Celestica stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Celestica shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Celestica stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Celestica entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 534177.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.66) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 288.18 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 289.09 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (6.66) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (18.83) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 46.98 |
Celestica Risk Indicators
The analysis of Celestica's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Celestica's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting celestica stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.54 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.96 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.77 | |||
| Variance | 22.75 | |||
| Downside Variance | 26.61 | |||
| Semi Variance | 24.64 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.43) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Celestica
The number of cover stories for Celestica depends on current market conditions and Celestica's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Celestica is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Celestica's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Celestica Short Properties
Celestica's future price predictability will typically decrease when Celestica's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Celestica often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Celestica's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Celestica's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 118.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 423.3 M |
Additional Tools for Celestica Stock Analysis
When running Celestica's price analysis, check to measure Celestica's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Celestica is operating at the current time. Most of Celestica's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Celestica's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Celestica's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Celestica to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.