Celestica Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CLS Stock | CAD 419.62 18.73 4.67% |
Celestica Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Celestica's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Celestica's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Celestica fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Celestica's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.999 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.8312 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.9755 | EPS Estimate Next Year 12.8727 | Wall Street Target Price 558.7215 |
Using Celestica hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Celestica from the perspective of Celestica response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Celestica on the next trading day is expected to be 422.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 16.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 982.20. Celestica after-hype prediction price | CAD 420.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Celestica |
Celestica Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Celestica price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Celestica using various technical indicators. When you analyze Celestica charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Celestica Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Celestica on the next trading day is expected to be 422.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 16.37, mean absolute percentage error of 522.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 982.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Celestica Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Celestica's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Celestica Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Celestica | Celestica Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Celestica Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Celestica's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Celestica's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 417.77 and 428.09, respectively. We have considered Celestica's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Celestica stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Celestica stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 4.1193 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 16.37 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0392 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 982.2 |
Predictive Modules for Celestica
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Celestica. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Celestica After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Celestica at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Celestica or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Celestica, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Celestica Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Celestica's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Celestica's historical news coverage. Celestica's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 414.98 and 425.30, respectively. We have considered Celestica's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Celestica is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Celestica is based on 3 months time horizon.
Celestica Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Celestica is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Celestica backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Celestica, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 5.16 | 0.52 | 0.67 | 9 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
419.62 | 420.14 | 0.12 |
|
Celestica Hype Timeline
Celestica is currently traded for 419.62on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.52, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.67. Celestica is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 420.14 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 89.43%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Celestica is about 69.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 420.29. The company reported the revenue of 12.61 B. Net Income was 847.07 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.49 B. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Celestica to cross-verify your projections.Celestica Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Celestica's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Celestica's future price movements. Getting to know how Celestica's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Celestica may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CSU | Constellation Software | 37.64 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 2.51 | (4.99) | 9.76 | |
| PNG | Kraken Robotics | (0.09) | 7 per month | 3.41 | 0.13 | 8.00 | (6.29) | 20.05 | |
| GIB-A | CGI Inc | (0.22) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.31 | (2.38) | 13.13 | |
| EDY | Eddy Smart Home | 0.01 | 1 per month | 4.94 | 0.06 | 13.94 | (10.64) | 64.82 | |
| YNV | Ynvisible Interactive | 0.00 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 8.33 | (7.14) | 23.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for Celestica
For every potential investor in Celestica, whether a beginner or expert, Celestica's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Celestica Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Celestica. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Celestica's price trends.Celestica Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Celestica stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Celestica could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Celestica by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Celestica Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Celestica stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Celestica shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Celestica stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Celestica entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 29928.99 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.08454 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.05 | |||
| Day Median Price | 422.37 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 421.45 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 6.62 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 18.73 |
Celestica Risk Indicators
The analysis of Celestica's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Celestica's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting celestica stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.88 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.19 | |||
| Variance | 26.9 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Celestica
The number of cover stories for Celestica depends on current market conditions and Celestica's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Celestica is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Celestica's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Celestica Short Properties
Celestica's future price predictability will typically decrease when Celestica's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Celestica often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Celestica's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Celestica's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 116.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 594.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Celestica to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Celestica Stock, please use our How to Invest in Celestica guide.You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.