Calvert Moderate Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CLAIX Fund | USD 22.74 -0.32 -1.39% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for Calvert Moderate is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Simple Exponential Smoothing output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Calvert Moderate Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 22.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.24.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Calvert Moderate Allocation forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Calvert Moderate observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page for Calvert Moderate presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Calvert Moderate Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 22.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.24 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Calvert Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Calvert Moderate's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Calvert Moderate Allocation focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 22.17 and upside near 23.31.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Calvert Moderate mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Calvert Moderate mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.2805 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0147 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.104 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0044 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.24 |
Other Forecasting Options for Calvert Moderate
The distribution of Calvert Moderate's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Calvert Moderate's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of Calvert Moderate's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in Calvert.Calvert Moderate Related Equities
Sizing up Calvert Moderate against these stocks within the Allocation--50% to 70% Equity space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how Calvert Moderate's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into. This type of review is most useful when done often to track how positions shift over time.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Calvert Moderate Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Calvert Moderate give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Calvert Moderate Allocation. Market strength analysis for Calvert Moderate Allocation works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For Calvert Moderate, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 22.74 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 22.74 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.16 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.32 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 31.11 |
Calvert Moderate Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Calvert Moderate's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Calvert Moderate's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of Calvert Moderate's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in Calvert Moderate's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4257 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5672 | |||
| Variance | 0.3217 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Calvert Moderate
Story coverage around Calvert Moderate Allocation often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.