CAP LEASE Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CLA Stock | 1.00 0.05 4.76% |
CAP Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CAP LEASE stock prices and determine the direction of CAP LEASE AVIATION's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CAP LEASE's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of CAP LEASE's share price is above 70 at the present time suggesting that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling CAP, making its price go up or down. Momentum 73
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 8.4 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.46) |
Using CAP LEASE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CAP LEASE AVIATION from the perspective of CAP LEASE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CAP LEASE AVIATION on the next trading day is expected to be 1.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.94. CAP LEASE after-hype prediction price | GBX 1.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CAP |
CAP LEASE Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CAP price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CAP using various technical indicators. When you analyze CAP charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CAP LEASE Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CAP LEASE AVIATION on the next trading day is expected to be 1.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0008, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CAP Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CAP LEASE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CAP LEASE Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CAP LEASE | CAP LEASE Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CAP LEASE Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CAP LEASE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CAP LEASE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.72, respectively. We have considered CAP LEASE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CAP LEASE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CAP LEASE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0031 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.016 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0209 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.9441 |
Predictive Modules for CAP LEASE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CAP LEASE AVIATION. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CAP LEASE After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CAP LEASE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CAP LEASE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CAP LEASE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CAP LEASE Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CAP LEASE's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CAP LEASE's historical news coverage. CAP LEASE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.05 and 4.73, respectively. We have considered CAP LEASE's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CAP LEASE is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CAP LEASE AVIATION is based on 3 months time horizon.
CAP LEASE Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CAP LEASE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CAP LEASE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CAP LEASE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.96 | 3.70 | 0.00 | 1.84 | 3 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
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CAP LEASE Hype Timeline
CAP LEASE AVIATION is currently traded for 1.00on London Exchange of UK. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 1.84. CAP is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.96%. %. The volatility of related hype on CAP LEASE is about 192.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.84. About 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of CAP LEASE was currently reported as 0.0. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CAP LEASE to cross-verify your projections.CAP LEASE Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CAP LEASE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CAP LEASE's future price movements. Getting to know how CAP LEASE's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CAP LEASE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 0JZT | McEwen Mining | 0.00 | 5 per month | 0.00 | 0.11 | 4.91 | 0.00 | 14.44 | |
| AMS | Advanced Medical Solutions | (1.50) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 1.91 | (2.47) | 14.45 | |
| 0LO9 | AMG Advanced Metallurgical | 0.61 | 1 per month | 2.62 | 0.1 | 5.23 | (4.37) | 13.93 | |
| OBI | Ondine Biomedical | 0.00 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 1.96 | (5.77) | 11.11 | |
| HOC | Hochschild Mining plc | 10.60 | 6 per month | 1.93 | 0.32 | 6.91 | (4.27) | 15.67 | |
| JD | JD Sports Fashion | 0.74 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.55 | (4.39) | 10.11 | |
| EGL | Ecofin Global Utilities | 2.98 | 4 per month | 0.78 | (0.01) | 1.71 | (1.69) | 3.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for CAP LEASE
For every potential investor in CAP, whether a beginner or expert, CAP LEASE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CAP Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CAP. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CAP LEASE's price trends.CAP LEASE Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CAP LEASE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CAP LEASE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CAP LEASE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CAP LEASE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CAP LEASE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CAP LEASE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CAP LEASE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CAP LEASE AVIATION entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CAP LEASE Risk Indicators
The analysis of CAP LEASE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CAP LEASE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cap stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.63 | |||
| Variance | 13.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 35.77 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.58 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.31) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CAP LEASE
The number of cover stories for CAP LEASE depends on current market conditions and CAP LEASE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CAP LEASE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CAP LEASE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CAP LEASE Short Properties
CAP LEASE's future price predictability will typically decrease when CAP LEASE's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CAP LEASE AVIATION often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CAP LEASE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CAP LEASE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.1 M | |
| Shares Float | 2.4 B |
Other Information on Investing in CAP Stock
CAP LEASE financial ratios help investors to determine whether CAP Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in CAP with respect to the benefits of owning CAP LEASE security.