Callan JMB Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CJMB Stock | 1.95 0.05 2.63% |
This page documents Double Exponential Smoothing forecast output for Callan JMB Common as reference data. The model is applied to historical closing prices and the resulting projection and error statistics are shown below.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Callan JMB Common on the next trading day is expected to be 1.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.95.When Callan JMB Common prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Callan JMB Common trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Callan JMB observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing reference information for Callan JMB is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Callan JMB Common on the next trading day is expected to be 1.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.19 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.95 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Callan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Callan JMB's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Callan JMB Common focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 0.02 and upside around 37.89 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Callan JMB stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Callan JMB stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0205 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1686 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0743 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.95 |
Other Forecasting Options for Callan JMB
Any investor evaluating Callan must grapple with the challenge of interpreting Callan JMB's price movement accurately. Callan Stock price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.Callan JMB Related Equities
The following equities are related to Callan JMB within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Callan JMB against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Callan JMB Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Callan JMB assess how the stock responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Callan JMB Common.
Callan JMB Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Callan JMB is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Callan JMB's investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 10.7 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.97 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 35.91 | |||
| Variance | 1289.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 85.12 | |||
| Semi Variance | 48.55 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -13.82 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Callan JMB
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Callan JMB Common can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Callan JMB Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Callan JMB Common can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.1 M |