Champlain Small Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CIPNX Fund | USD 16.05 -0.27 -1.65% |
This reference page presents Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Champlain Small. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Champlain Small on the next trading day is expected to be 15.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.67.When Champlain Small prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Champlain Small trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Champlain Small observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Champlain Small is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Champlain Small on the next trading day is expected to be 15.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.67 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Champlain Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Champlain Small's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Champlain Small's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Champlain Small mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Champlain Small mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0349 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1639 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0093 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.6711 |
Other Forecasting Options for Champlain Small
Champlain Small's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Champlain often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration. Gap analysis of Champlain Mutual Fund data examines overnight jumps between Champlain Small's closing and opening prices.Champlain Small Related Equities
Checking Champlain Small against related firms within the Small Growth space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how Champlain Small's capital structure stacks up against similar firms.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Champlain Small Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Champlain Small mutual fund reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Champlain Small. These indicators can identify periods when trading Champlain Small may offer more favorable risk-reward conditions.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.05 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 16.05 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.27 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 32.66 |
Champlain Small Risk Indicators
The analysis of Champlain Small's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Champlain Small's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure. The analysis of Champlain Small's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for managing investment risk.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8767 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Variance | 1.22 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Champlain Small
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Champlain Small can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.