CAPITAL INCOME Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CIBCX Fund | USD 77.91 -0.11 -0.14% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for Capital Income Builder is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Capital Income Builder on the next trading day is expected to be 77.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.04.When Capital Income Builder prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Capital Income Builder trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent CAPITAL INCOME observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Capital Income Builder are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Capital Income Builder on the next trading day is expected to be 77.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.18 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.04 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CAPITAL Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CAPITAL INCOME's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CAPITAL INCOME | CAPITAL INCOME Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Capital Income Builder uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 77.15 and upside near 78.21.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CAPITAL INCOME mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CAPITAL INCOME mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0789 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3057 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0038 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.0363 |
Other Forecasting Options for CAPITAL INCOME
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering CAPITAL needs to understand the dynamics of CAPITAL INCOME's price movement. Price charts for CAPITAL Mutual Fund contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.CAPITAL INCOME Related Equities
The following equities are related to CAPITAL INCOME within the World Allocation space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing CAPITAL INCOME against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CAPITAL INCOME Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for CAPITAL INCOME enables investors to understand how the mutual fund performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Capital Income Builder.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 77.91 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 77.91 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.06 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.11 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.76 |
CAPITAL INCOME Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing CAPITAL INCOME's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process helps investors quantify the risk associated with CAPITAL INCOME's and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3893 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6473 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5219 | |||
| Variance | 0.2724 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4743 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.419 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.33 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CAPITAL INCOME
Story coverage around Capital Income Builder often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.