Calvert Floating-Rate Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CFOAX Fund | USD 8.59 -0.01 -0.12% |
This reference page presents Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Calvert Floating Rate Advantage. The model output shown here is derived from Calvert Floating-Rate's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Calvert Floating Rate Advantage on the next trading day is expected to be 8.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.33.When Calvert Floating Rate Advantage prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Calvert Floating Rate Advantage trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Calvert Floating-Rate observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Calvert Floating Rate Advantage is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Calvert Floating Rate Advantage on the next trading day is expected to be 8.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.00009 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.33 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Calvert Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Calvert Floating-Rate's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Calvert Floating Rate Advantage focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 8.48 on the downside to about 8.70 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Calvert Floating-Rate mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Calvert Floating-Rate mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 2.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0056 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 7.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for Calvert Floating-Rate
For every potential investor in Calvert, whether a beginner or expert, Calvert Floating-Rate's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.Calvert Floating-Rate Related Equities
The following equities are related to Calvert Floating-Rate within the Bank Loan space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Calvert Floating-Rate against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Calvert Floating-Rate Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Calvert Floating-Rate mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Calvert Floating-Rate shares will generate the highest return on.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 8.59 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 8.59 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.79 |
Calvert Floating-Rate Risk Indicators
The analysis of Calvert Floating-Rate's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Calvert Floating-Rate's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0641 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1071 | |||
| Variance | 0.0115 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Calvert Floating-Rate
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Calvert Floating Rate Advantage can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.