Calvert Conservative Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CFAIX Fund | USD 18.53 -0.20 -1.07% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for Calvert Conservative is reference data produced from the equity's historical price series. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Calvert Conservative Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 18.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.02.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Calvert Conservative Allocation forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Calvert Conservative observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page for Calvert Conservative presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Calvert Conservative Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 18.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0048 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.02 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Calvert Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Calvert Conservative's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Calvert Conservative | Calvert Conservative Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Calvert Conservative Allocation uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 18.17 and upside near 18.89.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Calvert Conservative mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Calvert Conservative mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.9237 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0073 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0503 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0026 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.02 |
Other Forecasting Options for Calvert Conservative
Regardless of investment experience, understanding Calvert Conservative's price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in Calvert. Price charts for Calvert Mutual Fund are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.Calvert Conservative Related Equities
The following equities are related to Calvert Conservative within the Allocation--30% to 50% Equity space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Calvert Conservative against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Calvert Conservative Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Calvert Conservative give investors insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators provides context to make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading Calvert Conservative is likely to be most rewarding.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.53 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.53 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.10 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.20 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 33.17 |
Calvert Conservative Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Calvert Conservative's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Calvert Conservative's.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2619 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.3561 | |||
| Variance | 0.1268 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Calvert Conservative
A coverage review of Calvert Conservative Allocation shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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