COPT Defense Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CDP Stock | 31.20 -0.44 -1.39% |
COPT Defense Properties's Double Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices for COPT Defense. This page is updated as new daily closing prices become available for COPT Defense.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of COPT Defense Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 31.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.46.When COPT Defense Properties prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any COPT Defense Properties trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent COPT Defense observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for COPT Defense Properties are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of COPT Defense Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 31.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.17 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.46 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict COPT Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that COPT Defense's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest COPT Defense | COPT Defense Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for COPT Defense Properties focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 29.87 and upside around 32.42 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of COPT Defense stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent COPT Defense stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0268 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3128 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0101 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.458 |
Other Forecasting Options for COPT Defense
Bollinger Bands applied to COPT Stock price data measure how far COPT has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to COPT Defense's price data. On-balance volume for COPT Stock creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in COPT. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for COPT Defense's.COPT Defense Related Equities
COPT Defense's market space within the Real Estate space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Looking at COPT Defense's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
COPT Defense Market Strength Events
For investors tracking COPT Defense Properties, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell COPT Defense Properties. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in COPT Defense. These metrics provide actionable context for both entry and risk management decisions around COPT Defense Properties.
COPT Defense Risk Indicators
Analyzing COPT Defense's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for copt stock. By identifying the level of risk embedded in COPT Defense's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing. Analyzing COPT Defense's risk indicators gives investors important context for price forecasting. Understanding the risk in COPT Defense's investment allows investors to make informed choices about mitigating exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9751 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9406 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Variance | 1.63 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.13 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8847 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for COPT Defense
Story coverage around COPT Defense Properties often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
COPT Defense Short Properties
A short-interest review of COPT Defense Properties provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 113.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 275 M |
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