Cogeco Communications Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average

CCA Stock  CAD 76.79  0.34  0.44%   
This reference page presents Simple Moving Average forecast data for Cogeco Communications. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Cogeco Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 76.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.74.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Cogeco Communications price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Cogeco Communications. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future This Simple Moving Average forecast data for Cogeco Communications is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information.
A two period moving average forecast for Cogeco Communications is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Cogeco Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 76.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.75 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.74 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cogeco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cogeco Communications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Cogeco Communications' predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Market Value
76.79
76.62
Expected Value
78.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cogeco Communications stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cogeco Communications stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.9917
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2902
MADMean absolute deviation0.9447
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0135
SAESum of the absolute errors55.74
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Cogeco Communications price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Cogeco Communications. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Other Forecasting Options for Cogeco Communications

Cogeco Communications' daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Cogeco often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.

Cogeco Communications Related Equities

Investors studying Cogeco Communications often look at related stocks within the Communication Services space to gauge pricing and results. Profit comparisons show whether Cogeco Communications earns above or below average returns next to its peers. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag Cogeco Communications across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cogeco Communications Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Cogeco Communications stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Cogeco Communications.

Cogeco Communications Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cogeco Communications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Cogeco Communications' allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Cogeco Communications

The amount of media and story coverage tied to Cogeco Communications can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Cogeco Communications Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Cogeco Communications matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding42.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments75.2 M

More Resources for Cogeco Stock Analysis

Other Information on Investing in Cogeco Stock

These ratios describe connections between financial data points for Cogeco Communications. These metrics connect profitability and cash flow with broader valuation context.