Commerce Bancshares Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CBSH Stock | USD 54.43 0.68 1.23% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Commerce Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 54.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.40. Commerce Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Commerce Bancshares' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of Commerce Bancshares' share price is at 56 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Commerce Bancshares, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.04 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.08 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.0638 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.155 | Wall Street Target Price 61.625 |
Using Commerce Bancshares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Commerce Bancshares from the perspective of Commerce Bancshares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Commerce Bancshares using Commerce Bancshares' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Commerce using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Commerce Bancshares' stock price.
Commerce Bancshares Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Commerce Bancshares' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Commerce. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Commerce Bancshares stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 56.3644 | Short Percent 0.0428 | Short Ratio 5.08 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.2 M | 50 Day MA 52.4016 |
Commerce Bancshares Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Commerce Bancshares' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Commerce. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Commerce can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Commerce Bancshares. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Commerce Bancshares Implied Volatility | 0.7 |
Commerce Bancshares' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Commerce Bancshares stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Commerce Bancshares' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Commerce Bancshares stock will not fluctuate a lot when Commerce Bancshares' options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Commerce Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 54.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.40. Commerce Bancshares after-hype prediction price | USD 54.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Commerce Bancshares to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Commerce contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Commerce Bancshares will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0438% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Commerce Bancshares trading at USD 54.43, that is roughly USD 0.0238 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Commerce Bancshares' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Commerce Bancshares options at the current volatility level of 0.7%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Commerce Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Commerce Bancshares' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Commerce Bancshares' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Commerce Bancshares stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Commerce Bancshares' open interest, investors have to compare it to Commerce Bancshares' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Commerce Bancshares is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Commerce. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Commerce Bancshares Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Commerce price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Commerce using various technical indicators. When you analyze Commerce charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Commerce Bancshares Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Commerce Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 54.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48, mean absolute percentage error of 0.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Commerce Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Commerce Bancshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Commerce Bancshares Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Commerce Bancshares | Commerce Bancshares Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Commerce Bancshares Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Commerce Bancshares' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Commerce Bancshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 53.19 and 55.83, respectively. We have considered Commerce Bancshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Commerce Bancshares stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Commerce Bancshares stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0438 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4814 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0092 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.4016 |
Predictive Modules for Commerce Bancshares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commerce Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commerce Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Commerce Bancshares After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Commerce Bancshares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Commerce Bancshares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Commerce Bancshares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Commerce Bancshares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Commerce Bancshares' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Commerce Bancshares' historical news coverage. Commerce Bancshares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 53.12 and 55.74, respectively. We have considered Commerce Bancshares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Commerce Bancshares is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Commerce Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.
Commerce Bancshares Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Commerce Bancshares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Commerce Bancshares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Commerce Bancshares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.32 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
54.43 | 54.43 | 0.00 |
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Commerce Bancshares Hype Timeline
Commerce Bancshares is currently traded for 54.43. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Commerce is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on Commerce Bancshares is about 767.44%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 54.45. About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Commerce Bancshares was currently reported as 26.96. The company last dividend was issued on the 2nd of December 2025. Commerce Bancshares had 105:100 split on the 2nd of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Commerce Bancshares to cross-verify your projections.Commerce Bancshares Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Commerce Bancshares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Commerce Bancshares' future price movements. Getting to know how Commerce Bancshares' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Commerce Bancshares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CADE | Cadence Bancorp | 1.26 | 11 per month | 1.50 | 0.11 | 3.62 | (2.24) | 7.42 | |
| BOKF | BOK Financial | 0.92 | 10 per month | 0.86 | 0.18 | 3.17 | (1.41) | 6.77 | |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners | 1.37 | 6 per month | 1.53 | 0.05 | 2.99 | (2.01) | 6.97 | |
| SNV | Synovus Financial Corp | 0.31 | 4 per month | 1.99 | (0.03) | 2.93 | (2.49) | 9.63 | |
| VLY | Valley National Bancorp | 0.09 | 8 per month | 0.97 | 0.17 | 4.02 | (2.08) | 7.87 | |
| CFR | CullenFrost Bankers | 1.02 | 11 per month | 0.65 | 0.11 | 3.15 | (1.45) | 5.24 | |
| PB | Prosperity Bancshares | (0.93) | 9 per month | 0.66 | 0.13 | 2.92 | (1.16) | 5.87 | |
| UMBF | UMB Financial | 0.1 | 15 per month | 1.04 | 0.08 | 3.61 | (1.46) | 7.29 | |
| BPOP | Popular | (2.52) | 6 per month | 1.31 | 0.04 | 2.67 | (2.08) | 6.92 | |
| ONB | Old National Bancorp | 0.1 | 7 per month | 1.02 | 0.14 | 4.00 | (1.59) | 8.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for Commerce Bancshares
For every potential investor in Commerce, whether a beginner or expert, Commerce Bancshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Commerce Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Commerce. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Commerce Bancshares' price trends.Commerce Bancshares Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Commerce Bancshares stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Commerce Bancshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Commerce Bancshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Commerce Bancshares Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Commerce Bancshares stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Commerce Bancshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Commerce Bancshares stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Commerce Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 54.43 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 54.43 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.34) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.68) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 56.68 |
Commerce Bancshares Risk Indicators
The analysis of Commerce Bancshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Commerce Bancshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting commerce stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9037 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Variance | 1.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.04) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Commerce Bancshares
The number of cover stories for Commerce Bancshares depends on current market conditions and Commerce Bancshares' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Commerce Bancshares is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Commerce Bancshares' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Commerce Bancshares Short Properties
Commerce Bancshares' future price predictability will typically decrease when Commerce Bancshares' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Commerce Bancshares often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Commerce Bancshares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Commerce Bancshares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 134.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12.5 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Commerce Bancshares to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Commerce Stock please use our How to Invest in Commerce Bancshares guide.You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commerce Bancshares. If investors know Commerce will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Commerce Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.04 | Dividend Share 1.031 | Earnings Share 3.99 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.03 |
The market value of Commerce Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Commerce that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Commerce Bancshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Commerce Bancshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Commerce Bancshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Commerce Bancshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Commerce Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Commerce Bancshares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Commerce Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.