Cracker Barrel Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

CBRL Stock  USD 27.99  0.46  1.67%   
In the current reporting cycle, Cracker Barrel reflects the RSI oscillator of 0, indicating compressed downside momentum. This extreme reading suggests selling pressure has dominated recent sessions and may be due for at least a temporary pause.
Momentum
Sell Peaked
 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The hype cycle around Cracker Barrel can be quantified and compared to historical sentiment baselines. This module uses that comparison to generate price predictions that reflect the sentiment component of market value. Fundamental factors used to frame Cracker Barrel's forecast:
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
-0.94
 EPS Estimate Current Year
-1.21
 EPS Estimate Next Year
0.8309
 Wall Street Target Price
33.5
 EPS Estimate Current Quarter
-0.30
This view relates Cracker Barrel's headline activity to recent price response context. Options and short interest provide context for sentiment around Cracker Barrel in this section.

Short Interest Tracking - Cracker Barrel

Cracker Barrel short interest relative to sector peers provides additional context. If Cracker Barrel's short interest is significantly higher than competitors. the market may perceive company-specific risks that warrant investigation.
 200 Day MA
43.184
 Short Percent
0.3886
 Short Ratio
4.47
 Shares Short Prior Month
5.5 M
 50 Day MA
30.9328

RSI Oscillator - Cracker

The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cracker Barrel Old on the next trading day is expected to be 27.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.69.

Attention-to-Price Pattern - Cracker Barrel Old

The relationship between Cracker Barrel's news sentiment and price action reveals how efficiently the market processes new information about Cracker. Persistent sentiment-price gaps create exploitable opportunities for disciplined investors.
Investors who systematically buy Cracker Barrel when sentiment is deeply negative and sell when it is excessively positive have historically captured mean-reversion returns not available to purely fundamental or technical investors.
Cracker Barrel Implied Volatility
    
  2.13  
Implied volatility in Cracker Barrel's options does not predict direction - it measures magnitude. An investor expecting a large move in Cracker Barrel stock in either direction may benefit from strategies that profit from volatility expansion.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cracker Barrel Old on the next trading day is expected to be 27.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.69.
Cracker Barrel after-hype prediction price
    
  $ 27.99  
The sentiment view is a companion to forecasting, technical studies, analyst estimates, and earnings trends.
Cross-verify projections for Cracker Barrel using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cracker Barrel. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.

Rule 16 Reference for the current Cracker contract - Performance Context

Based on Rule 16, the market-implied daily move for 2026-03-20 options is about 0.13%. This context is informational: with Cracker Barrel near $ 27.99, the daily move estimate is $ 0.0373 .

Open Interest Map for Cracker Options 2026-03-20

The open interest measure summarizes active contracts for Cracker Barrel and can be paired with trend context.

Cracker Barrel Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Cracker price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cracker using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cracker charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Cracker Barrel simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Cracker Barrel Old are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Cracker Barrel Old prices get older.

Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 15th of March 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cracker Barrel Old on the next trading day is expected to be 27.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.20 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.69 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cracker Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cracker Barrel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Cracker Barrel  Cracker Barrel Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Cracker Barrel Old uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Market Value
27.99
27.99
Expected Value
31.59
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cracker Barrel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cracker Barrel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.2898
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0254
MADMean absolute deviation0.8802
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0288
SAESum of the absolute errors53.69
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Cracker Barrel Old forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Cracker Barrel observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.
Experienced Cracker Barrel's investors use mean reversion as a complement to momentum analysis: momentum identifies the trend; mean reversion identifies when that trend has extended beyond sustainable levels.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.3927.9931.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.7229.3232.92
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
27.4431.1334.82
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
30.4933.5037.19
Details
The most actionable insights from Cracker Barrel analysis often emerge from peer comparison rather than standalone review. Cracker Barrel's metrics gain meaning when benchmarked against the best and worst performers in its sector.

After-Hype Price Density Analysis

This probability distribution for Cracker Barrel is built from Monte Carlo simulations that incorporate Cracker Barrel's historical volatility, mean reversion tendencies, and jump risk. The resulting distribution captures a broader range of Cracker Barrel outcomes than simple linear.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

The boundaries derived from Cracker Barrel's historical news analysis represent the range within which Cracker Barrel's price has typically settled after comparable headline events. Cracker Barrel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.39 and 31.59, respectively. Outcomes outside these boundaries are less common but not rare for Cracker Barrel.
Current Value
27.99
27.99
After-hype Price
31.59
Upside
The after-hype framework applied to Cracker Barrel Old assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.

Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cracker Barrel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cracker Barrel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cracker Barrel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.16 
3.60
  0.03 
  0.04 
8 Events
7 Events
In 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
27.99
27.99
0.00 
2,250  
Notes

Hype Timeline

Cracker Barrel Old is currently traded for 27.99. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Cracker is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Cracker Barrel is about 1506.28%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.03. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.46. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Cracker Barrel Old has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.56. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.2. The firm last dividend was issued on the 10th of April 2026. Cracker Barrel completed a 3:2 stock split on 22nd of March 1993. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 8 days.
Cross-verify projections for Cracker Barrel using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cracker Barrel. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.

Related Hype Analysis

Understanding Cracker Barrel's position within its competitive set helps investors assess whether news affecting a peer is a headwind or tailwind for Cracker Barrel. This distinction requires knowledge of the competitive dynamics specific to Cracker Barrel's industry.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
BJRIBJs Restaurants 0.67 10 per month 0.00 -0.06 3.73 -3.63 9.53
SGSweetgreen-0.20 10 per month 0.00 -0.04 6.76 -7.24 22.30
BLMNBloomin Brands-0.23 6 per month 0.00 -0.06 6.06 -6.64 22.39
BBWBuild A Bear Workshop-0.98 5 per month 0.00 -0.08 3.79 -6.39 13.06
KRUSKura Sushi USA 2.45 9 per month 3.18 0.06 6.29 -4.86 26.59
CSVCarriage Services 1.03 7 per month 1.22 0.04 2.50 -1.94 5.67
AXLAmerican Axle Manufacturing-0.12 8 per month 0.00 -0.04 8.55 -4.67 23.81
CARSCars Inc-0.91 9 per month 0.00 -0.20 2.94 -5.85 20.18
PLOWDouglas Dynamics 0.60 7 per month 1.30 0.24 3.90 -2.80 8.47
LQDTLiquidity Services 0.08 10 per month 0.00 -0.02 2.42 -3.52 11.17

Other Forecasting Options for Cracker Barrel

Understanding Cracker Barrel's price movement is a prerequisite for any investor considering Cracker as a position. Cracker Stock price charts are frequently cluttered with noise that can interfere with accurate interpretation.

Cracker Barrel Related Equities

The following equities are related to Cracker Barrel within the Consumer Discretionary space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Cracker Barrel against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cracker Barrel Market Strength Events

For traders and investors in Cracker Barrel Old, market strength indicators offer a quantitative framework for evaluating the stock's responsiveness to market conditions. These tools help identify when trading Cracker Barrel shares is most likely to generate favorable returns.

Cracker Barrel Risk Indicators

Analyzing Cracker Barrel's risk indicators provides a critical input for price forecasting and investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Cracker Barrel's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about their exposure and hedging strategies.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Cracker Barrel

Coverage intensity for Cracker Barrel Old matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Cracker Barrel Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Cracker Barrel Old matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding22.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments39.6 M

More Resources for Cracker Stock Analysis

Reviewing Cracker Barrel Old commonly begins with financial statements and performance trends. Financial ratios provide context for profitability, efficiency, and growth trends. Selected reports below provide context for Cracker Stock:
Cross-verify projections for Cracker Barrel using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cracker Barrel. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.
Analysis related to Cracker Barrel should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
-0.94
 Dividend Share
1
 Earnings Share
-0.20
 Revenue Per Share
150.782
 Quarterly Revenue Growth
-0.08
Investors evaluate Cracker Barrel Old using market value and book value, each describing different facets of the business. Cracker Barrel's market capitalization is 615.32 M. A P/B ratio of 1.46 indicates the market values Cracker Barrel above its accounting book value. Enterprise value stands at 1.76 B. The intrinsic value concept focuses on underlying worth, which can diverge from market price and book value. Valuation work aligns these measures into a single context.
The concept of value for Cracker Barrel differs from its quoted price, since each reflects a different lens. For Cracker Barrel, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 56.37, a P/B ratio of 1.46, a profit margin of -0.12%, and ROE of -0.9%. Trading price represents the transaction level agreed by market participants.