Chubb Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| CB Stock | USD 323.64 -4.34 -1.32% |
Chubb's Simple Moving Average reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Chubb on the next trading day is expected to be 325.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 187.00.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Chubb price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Chubb. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future The Simple Moving Average reference values for Chubb are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Chubb on the next trading day is expected to be 325.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.17 , mean absolute percentage error of 17.37 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 187.00 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chubb Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chubb's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Chubb uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 324.62 and upside near 327.00.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chubb stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chubb stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.2893 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3857 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.1694 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0099 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 186.995 |
Other Forecasting Options for Chubb
For investors of all experience levels considering Chubb, understanding Chubb's price movement is fundamental to making sound investment decisions. Chubb Stock price charts contain significant noise that can obscure meaningful trends.Chubb Related Equities
The following equities are related to Chubb within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Chubb against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Chubb Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Chubb stock provide investors with a framework for assessing how the security responds to changing market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Chubb.
| Accumulation Distribution | 52518.9 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.55 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 326.45 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 325.51 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -4.98 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -4.34 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.54 |
Chubb Risk Indicators
Assessing Chubb's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Chubb's allows investors to make an informed decision about whether to accept or mitigate that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8179 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9389 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Variance | 1.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8814 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.83 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Chubb
Coverage intensity for Chubb matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Chubb Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Chubb matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 396.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.5 B |