Capricor Therapeutics Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CAPR Stock | USD 30.50 -2.92 -8.74% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter -0.53 | EPS Estimate Current Year -0.57 | EPS Estimate Next Year -0.44 | Wall Street Target Price 53.7 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter -0.54 |
This section summarizes Capricor Therapeutics headline activity and related price response context. Options and short interest metrics are combined here to describe sentiment for Capricor Therapeutics.
Short Interest Activity for Capricor Therapeutics
Short sellers in Capricor Therapeutics profit when Capricor Therapeutics' stock falls below their entry price. Monitoring short interest helps long investors understand the magnitude of selling pressure they face.
200 Day MA 14.1721 | Short Percent 0.141 | Short Ratio 6.32 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.6 M | 50 Day MA 25.907 |
RSI Momentum View - Capricor
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Capricor Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 30.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.12.Hype and Price Context: Capricor Therapeutics
When Capricor Therapeutics' news sentiment peaks, stock prices often follow with a lag. Similarly, sentiment troughs can mark price bottoms if fundamental business quality remains intact.
Tracking how Capricor Therapeutics' sentiment evolves after major announcements helps investors assess whether the market's reaction was proportionate or whether an over-correction created a new entry opportunity in Capricor Therapeutics.
Capricor Therapeutics Implied Volatility | 3.44 |
The implied volatility skew for Capricor Therapeutics options - the difference in implied volatility between puts and calls at different strikes - reveals the market's asymmetric fear of downside versus upside moves in Capricor Therapeutics' stock.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Capricor Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 30.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.12.Capricor Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | $ 30.56 |
This module presents attention signals alongside forecasting, technical analysis, analyst consensus, and earnings.
Cross-verify projections for Capricor Therapeutics using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Capricor Therapeutics. The historical view provides additional context.Rule 16 Reference for the current Capricor contract - Pricing Context
Based on Rule 16, the market-implied daily move for 2026-03-20 options is about 0.22%. This estimate is a volatility reference; at $ 30.5, it implies a move of about $ 0.0656 per day.
Open Interest Distribution for Capricor 2026-03-20 Options
Active contract counts for Capricor Therapeutics are shown through open interest, offering positioning and liquidity context.
Capricor Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Capricor price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Capricor using various technical indicators. When you analyze Capricor charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Capricor Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 30.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.64 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.12 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Capricor Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Capricor Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Capricor Therapeutics | Capricor Therapeutics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Capricor Therapeutics uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Capricor Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Capricor Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0563 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9342 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0356 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 55.12 |
The mean reversion framework for Capricor Therapeutics is built on the premise that markets are not perfectly efficient and that prices periodically overshoot their intrinsic value in both directions.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Visualizing the full distribution of potential Capricor Therapeutics outcomes discourages binary thinking about investments. Rather than asking whether Capricor Therapeutics' price will go up or down, the distribution approach asks: what is the range of outcomes and how probable is each?
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The news-based price prediction model for Capricor Therapeutics is transparent: it measures how Capricor Therapeutics' has historically reacted to news, not how it will theoretically behave. Capricor Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.74 and 35.38, respectively. Investors should use this model as one input among many when evaluating Capricor Therapeutics ahead of anticipated news.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Capricor Therapeutics assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Capricor Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Capricor Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Capricor Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 4.79 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 4 Events | 8 Events | In 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
30.50 | 30.56 | 0.20 |
|
Hype Timeline
Capricor Therapeutics is currently traded for 30.50. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Capricor is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 30.56 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.2%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.34%. The volatility of related hype on Capricor Therapeutics is about 11404.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.51. The company reported previous year's revenue of 22.27 M. Net Loss for the year was -40.47 M with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of -84.45 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 4 days. Cross-verify projections for Capricor Therapeutics using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Capricor Therapeutics. The historical view provides additional context.Related Hype Analysis
The peer hype analysis for Capricor Therapeutics identifies which competitors tend to lead the sector in their news reactions. These leading indicators provide early signals about the direction of Capricor Therapeutics' upcoming performance.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CABA | Cabaletta Bio | -0.55 | 7 per month | 3.78 | 0.09 | 8.16 | -7.27 | 32.97 | |
| LXEO | Lexeo Therapeutics Common | -0.31 | 6 per month | 0.00 | -0.08 | 6.22 | -6.37 | 34.26 | |
| PRQR | ProQR Therapeutics BV | 0.05 | 4 per month | 0.00 | -0.02 | 5.83 | -5.81 | 25.15 | |
| TRDA | Entrada Therapeutics | 1.20 | 10 per month | 3.18 | 0.09 | 6.40 | -6.72 | 14.87 | |
| IMMP | Immutep Ltd ADR | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.00 | -0.05 | 6.88 | -7.07 | 34.19 | |
| ALLO | Allogene Therapeutics | -0.03 | 7 per month | 4.49 | 0.16 | 11.11 | -7.79 | 28.70 | |
| EDIT | Editas Medicine | -0.02 | 7 per month | 4.59 | 0.04 | 11.64 | -6.01 | 26.62 | |
| ACHV | Achieve Life Sciences | -0.23 | 7 per month | 0.00 | -0.02 | 5.74 | -6.18 | 15.29 | |
| ARCT | Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings | 0.36 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.02 | 6.53 | -5.23 | 17.23 | |
| VNDA | Vanda Pharmaceuticals | -0.07 | 8 per month | 4.99 | 0.11 | 10.14 | -6.46 | 49.80 |
Other Forecasting Options for Capricor Therapeutics
Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether Capricor is a viable investment for any investor. Capricor Stock price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.Capricor Therapeutics Related Equities
The following equities are related to Capricor Therapeutics within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Capricor Therapeutics against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Capricor Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Assessing the market strength of Capricor Therapeutics stock provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading Capricor Therapeutics is most likely to be profitable.
Capricor Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Capricor Therapeutics' basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in Capricor Therapeutics' helps investors choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 3.52 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.79 | |||
| Variance | 22.92 | |||
| Downside Variance | 19.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 15.88 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.83 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Capricor Therapeutics
Coverage intensity for Capricor Therapeutics matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Capricor Therapeutics Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Capricor Therapeutics matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 151.5 M |
Additional Tools for Capricor Stock Analysis
| Money Managers Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world | |
| Portfolio Backtesting Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios | |
| Portfolio Anywhere Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum | |
| Insider Screener Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance | |
| Global Markets Map Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes | |
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
| Portfolio Holdings Check your current holdings and cash position to determine if your portfolio needs rebalancing | |
| Top Crypto Exchanges Search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges |