FEDERATED CAPITAL Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CAPAX Fund | USD 9.11 -0.08 -0.87% |
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Federated Capital Income. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Federated Capital Income on the next trading day is expected to be 9.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.54.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past FEDERATED CAPITAL observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Federated Capital Income observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Federated Capital Income is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Federated Capital Income on the next trading day is expected to be 9.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0012 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.54 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FEDERATED Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FEDERATED CAPITAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FEDERATED CAPITAL | FEDERATED CAPITAL Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Federated Capital Income uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 8.72 and upside near 9.46.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FEDERATED CAPITAL mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FEDERATED CAPITAL mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.008 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0262 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0028 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.5433 |
Other Forecasting Options for FEDERATED CAPITAL
FEDERATED CAPITAL's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in FEDERATED often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.FEDERATED CAPITAL Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Allocation--30% to 50% Equity space can help frame FEDERATED CAPITAL's pricing and running costs in context. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge FEDERATED CAPITAL's relative financial strength. Finding which peers are closest to FEDERATED CAPITAL in business model helps sharpen the comparison. Investors should weigh both financial metrics and softer factors when comparing these firms.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FEDERATED CAPITAL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how FEDERATED CAPITAL mutual fund reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Federated Capital Income.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.11 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.11 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.04 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.08 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 33.46 |
FEDERATED CAPITAL Risk Indicators
The analysis of FEDERATED CAPITAL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding FEDERATED CAPITAL's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2744 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.366 | |||
| Variance | 0.1339 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FEDERATED CAPITAL
Coverage intensity for Federated Capital Income matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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