Central Asia Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| CAML Stock | 213.50 1.00 0.47% |
Central Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At the present time the relative strength momentum indicator of Central Asia's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.58) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.2403 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.3845 | Wall Street Target Price 218.7768 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
Using Central Asia hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Central Asia Metals from the perspective of Central Asia response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Central Asia Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 221.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 238.12. Central Asia after-hype prediction price | GBX 215.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Central |
Central Asia Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Central price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Central using various technical indicators. When you analyze Central charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Central Asia Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 9th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Central Asia Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 221.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.90, mean absolute percentage error of 26.89, and the sum of the absolute errors of 238.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Central Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Central Asia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Central Asia Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Central Asia | Central Asia Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Central Asia Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Central Asia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Central Asia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 219.78 and 223.51, respectively. We have considered Central Asia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Central Asia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Central Asia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.4022 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.9035 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0203 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 238.1153 |
Predictive Modules for Central Asia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Central Asia Metals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Central Asia After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Central Asia at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Central Asia or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Central Asia, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Central Asia Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Central Asia's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Central Asia's historical news coverage. Central Asia's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 213.49 and 217.23, respectively. We have considered Central Asia's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Central Asia is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Central Asia Metals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Central Asia Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Central Asia is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Central Asia backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Central Asia, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.49 | 1.87 | 1.86 | 3.67 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
213.50 | 215.36 | 0.87 |
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Central Asia Hype Timeline
Central Asia Metals is currently traded for 213.50on London Exchange of UK. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.86, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 3.67. Central is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 215.36 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 49.21%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.87%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.49%. The volatility of related hype on Central Asia is about 24.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 217.17. The company reported the revenue of 214.44 M. Net Income was 76.53 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 94.25 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Central Asia to cross-verify your projections.Central Asia Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Central Asia's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Central Asia's future price movements. Getting to know how Central Asia's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Central Asia may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TTST | Tata Steel Limited | 0.20 | 6 per month | 1.75 | 0.06 | 4.25 | (2.90) | 8.70 | |
| ANTO | Antofagasta PLC | 89.00 | 8 per month | 1.96 | 0.16 | 4.91 | (3.65) | 12.49 | |
| 0QPS | Givaudan SA | (26.33) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.85 | (2.24) | 9.71 | |
| 0QJS | Clariant AG | (0.01) | 4 per month | 1.57 | 0.08 | 2.98 | (2.42) | 13.11 | |
| EVR | EVRAZ plc | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| THX | Thor Explorations | (0.98) | 5 per month | 2.85 | 0.19 | 5.56 | (5.81) | 16.63 | |
| MTL | Metals Exploration Plc | 0.1 | 6 per month | 2.92 | 0.1 | 7.67 | (5.41) | 19.42 | |
| FXPO | Ferrexpo PLC | (2.00) | 3 per month | 3.58 | 0.08 | 10.00 | (4.82) | 35.70 |
Other Forecasting Options for Central Asia
For every potential investor in Central, whether a beginner or expert, Central Asia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Central Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Central. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Central Asia's price trends.Central Asia Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Central Asia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Central Asia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Central Asia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Central Asia Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Central Asia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Central Asia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Central Asia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Central Asia Metals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Central Asia Risk Indicators
The analysis of Central Asia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Central Asia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting central stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Variance | 3.38 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.73 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Central Asia
The number of cover stories for Central Asia depends on current market conditions and Central Asia's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Central Asia is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Central Asia's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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Central Asia Short Properties
Central Asia's future price predictability will typically decrease when Central Asia's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Central Asia Metals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Central Asia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Central Asia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 185.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 67.3 M |
Additional Tools for Central Stock Analysis
When running Central Asia's price analysis, check to measure Central Asia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Central Asia is operating at the current time. Most of Central Asia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Central Asia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Central Asia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Central Asia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.