Calvert Aggressive Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| CAGIX Fund | USD 28.72 0.39 1.38% |
The Simple Moving Average forecast shown here for Calvert Aggressive is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Simple Moving Average output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Calvert Aggressive Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 28.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.44.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Calvert Aggressive Allocation price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Calvert Aggressive. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future This Simple Moving Average reference page for Calvert Aggressive presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Calvert Aggressive Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 28.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.06 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.44 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Calvert Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Calvert Aggressive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Calvert Aggressive's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 27.93 and upside around 29.51 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Calvert Aggressive mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Calvert Aggressive mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.4695 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0274 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1906 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0064 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.435 |
Other Forecasting Options for Calvert Aggressive
The distribution of Calvert Aggressive's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Calvert Aggressive's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of Calvert Aggressive's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in Calvert.Calvert Aggressive Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of Calvert Aggressive within the Allocation--85%+ Equity space and offer context for ranking and strength. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across Calvert Aggressive's peer group. How Calvert Aggressive ranks within this group can shift over time as the competitive picture changes.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Calvert Aggressive Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Calvert Aggressive give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Calvert Aggressive Allocation. Market strength analysis for Calvert Aggressive Allocation works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For Calvert Aggressive, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 28.72 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 28.72 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.2 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.39 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.81 |
Calvert Aggressive Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Calvert Aggressive's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Calvert Aggressive's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of Calvert Aggressive's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in Calvert Aggressive's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.602 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.773 | |||
| Variance | 0.5976 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Calvert Aggressive
A coverage review of Calvert Aggressive Allocation shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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