Cabaletta Bio Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CABA Stock | USD 3.19 -0.08 -2.45% |
The successful prediction of Cabaletta Bio's future price could yield a significant profit. Please note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Cabaletta Bio and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from.
Currently, the 14-period RSI for Cabaletta Bio is 0, signaling extreme oversold conditions. Readings below 20 are commonly associated with potential stabilization zones.Momentum
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter -0.47 | EPS Estimate Current Year -2.10 | EPS Estimate Next Year -1.68 | Wall Street Target Price 13.125 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter -0.46 |
The hype-based view summarizes Cabaletta Bio's price response to recent headlines and peer coverage. This section reviews Cabaletta Bio's options positioning and short interest as sentiment context.
Cabaletta Bio Implied Volatility | 1.83 |
Cabaletta Bio's implied volatility is a forward-looking measure derived from Cabaletta Bio's option prices. It represents the market's consensus expectation of how much Cabaletta Bio's stock will move over a given period - regardless of direction.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cabaletta Bio on the next trading day is expected to be 3.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.50.Cabaletta Bio after-hype prediction price | $ 3.14 |
This hype view sits alongside price forecasting, technical analysis, analyst consensus, earnings estimates, and momentum indicators.
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Rule 16 for the current Cabaletta contract - Market Context
Using the Rule 16 heuristic, the current implied volatility suggests an average daily move of about 0.11% for the 2026-05-15 options. At a recent price around $ 3.19, the implied daily move is approximately $ 0.003649 , which is informational only.
Open Interest Across 2026-05-15 Cabaletta Option Contracts
For Cabaletta Bio, open interest represents outstanding option contracts and offers a snapshot of market participation and positioning.
Cabaletta Bio Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cabaletta price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cabaletta using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cabaletta charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cabaletta Bio Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cabaletta Bio on the next trading day is expected to be 3.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.50 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cabaletta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cabaletta Bio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cabaletta Bio Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cabaletta Bio | Cabaletta Bio Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Cabaletta Bio Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Cabaletta Bio uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cabaletta Bio stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cabaletta Bio stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.4933 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0138 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1083 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0399 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.495 |
Mean reversion is the tendency of Cabaletta Bio's price to return to its historical average after periods of extreme deviation. Investors who identify when Cabaletta Bio's is significantly above or below its mean may find compelling entry or exit opportunities.
Cabaletta Bio After-Hype Price Density Analysis
This probability density chart for Cabaletta Bio shows how predicted future prices are distributed across a range of outcomes. Wider distributions reflect higher uncertainty, while narrow distributions indicate greater consensus about Cabaletta Bio's likely price range.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cabaletta Bio Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Historical news analysis for Cabaletta Bio provides statistically derived price boundaries for the session following a significant headline. Cabaletta Bio's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.16 and 8.89, respectively. These boundaries are derived from Cabaletta Bio's past price reactions to comparable news events, not forward-looking forecasts.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Cabaletta Bio assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Cabaletta Bio Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cabaletta Bio is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cabaletta Bio backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cabaletta Bio, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.65 | 5.76 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 6 Events | 7 Events | In 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.19 | 3.14 | 3.68 |
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Cabaletta Bio Hype Timeline
Cabaletta Bio is currently traded for 3.19. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Cabaletta is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 3.14. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -3.68%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.65%. The volatility of related hype on Cabaletta Bio is about 12000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.22. About 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Cabaletta Bio was currently reported as 1.45. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.4. Cabaletta Bio had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 6 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cabaletta Bio to cross-verify projections for Cabaletta Bio. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Cabaletta Bio Related Hype Analysis
Monitoring how Cabaletta Bio's competitors respond to market-moving news provides a leading indicator for how Cabaletta Bio itself may react to similar events. Peer hype analysis captures this cross-asset sentiment signal.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EDIT | Editas Medicine | 0.06 | 8 per month | 4.47 | 0.05 | 11.64 | -6.01 | 26.62 | |
| ALLO | Allogene Therapeutics | 0.05 | 8 per month | 4.40 | 0.18 | 11.11 | -7.79 | 28.70 | |
| CAPR | Capricor Therapeutics | -0.17 | 8 per month | 4.53 | 0.06 | 9.04 | -6.69 | 18.57 | |
| KYTX | Kyverna Therapeutics Common | -0.08 | 10 per month | 7.48 | 0.06 | 10.60 | -8.52 | 55.75 | |
| LYEL | Lyell Immunopharma | 0.83 | 7 per month | 5.05 | 0.02 | 7.13 | -8.14 | 24.69 | |
| AVIR | Atea Pharmaceuticals | 0.02 | 5 per month | 1.50 | 0.31 | 8.20 | -2.91 | 17.79 | |
| PRQR | ProQR Therapeutics BV | -0.05 | 3 per month | 0.00 | -0.01 | 5.83 | -5.81 | 25.15 | |
| IMMP | Immutep Ltd ADR | 0.16 | 5 per month | 3.20 | 0.12 | 6.88 | -5.43 | 34.19 | |
| LXEO | Lexeo Therapeutics Common | -0.31 | 6 per month | 0.00 | -0.07 | 6.22 | -6.37 | 34.26 | |
| HUMA | Humacyte | -0.03 | 9 per month | 4.72 | 0.01 | 11.11 | -8.11 | 43.72 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cabaletta Bio
For investors of all experience levels considering Cabaletta, understanding Cabaletta Bio's price movement is fundamental to making sound investment decisions. Cabaletta Stock price charts contain significant noise that can obscure meaningful trends.Cabaletta Bio Related Equities
The following equities are related to Cabaletta Bio within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Cabaletta Bio against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cabaletta Bio Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Cabaletta Bio stock provide investors with a framework for assessing how the security responds to changing market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Cabaletta Bio.
| Accumulation Distribution | 65816.91 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.53 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3.22 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3.21 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.07 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.08 |
Cabaletta Bio Risk Indicators
Assessing Cabaletta Bio's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Cabaletta Bio's allows investors to make an informed decision about whether to accept or mitigate that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 3.93 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.57 | |||
| Variance | 31.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 17.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.86 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -5.31 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cabaletta Bio
Coverage intensity for Cabaletta Bio matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Cabaletta Bio Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Cabaletta Bio matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 49.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 164 M |
More Resources for Cabaletta Stock Analysis
A structured review of Cabaletta Bio often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Ratio context helps frame profitability, efficiency, and growth trends for Cabaletta Bio Stock. Highlighted below are reports that provide context for Cabaletta Bio Stock:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cabaletta Bio to cross-verify projections for Cabaletta Bio. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set. For more detail on how to invest in Cabaletta Stock please use our How to Invest in Cabaletta Bio guide.Analysis related to Cabaletta Bio should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
The market value of Cabaletta Bio is measured differently than book value, which reflects Cabaletta accounting equity. Cabaletta Bio's market capitalization is 319.6 M. A P/B ratio of 2.29 indicates the market values Cabaletta Bio above its accounting book value. Enterprise value stands at 184.97 M. Intrinsic value is an estimate of what Cabaletta Bio's fundamentals imply, and it may differ from market and book figures. Analytical frameworks help compare those viewpoints.
Note that Cabaletta Bio's intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. For Cabaletta Bio, key inputs include a P/B ratio of 2.29, and ROE of -101.06%. The quoted price is simply the exchange level where supply meets demand.