Anheuser Busch Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| BUD Stock | USD 69.92 -0.01 -0.01% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing reference information for Anheuser Busch summarizes the forecasted value and model error statistics based on historical price data. This data is provided for reference and analytical review.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Anheuser Busch Inbev on the next trading day is expected to be 69.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.80 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.00.When Anheuser Busch Inbev prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Anheuser Busch Inbev trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Anheuser Busch observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. Anheuser Busch's Double Exponential Smoothing reference values are drawn from available trading data and are presented for informational reference only. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Anheuser Busch Inbev on the next trading day is expected to be 69.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.80 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.07 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.00 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Anheuser Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Anheuser Busch's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Anheuser Busch | Anheuser Busch Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Anheuser Busch Inbev uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 67.83 on the downside to about 70.58 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Anheuser Busch stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Anheuser Busch stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0432 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7965 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0109 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 46.9954 |
Other Forecasting Options for Anheuser Busch
Investors evaluating Anheuser at any level need to understand the significance of Anheuser Busch's price movement for their investment outcomes. The presence of noise in Anheuser Stock price charts demands careful analysis to avoid misinterpreting short-term fluctuations as trends.Anheuser Busch Related Equities
The following equities are related to Anheuser Busch within the Consumer Staples space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Anheuser Busch against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Anheuser Busch Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Anheuser Busch help investors evaluate how the stock tracks overall market momentum and conditions. These signals are used to determine optimal timing for entering or exiting Anheuser Busch Inbev positions.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 69.92 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 69.92 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.67 |
Anheuser Busch Risk Indicators
The assessment of Anheuser Busch's risk indicators plays a key role in forecasting its future price and managing investment exposure. Investors who measure Anheuser Busch's risk profile carefully are better equipped to decide how to manage their positions.
| Mean Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Variance | 1.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.61 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.14 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Anheuser Busch
A coverage review of Anheuser Busch Inbev helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Anheuser Busch Short Properties
A short-interest review of Anheuser Busch Inbev helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.9 B |