Popular Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BPOP Stock | USD 133.25 1.71 1.30% |
Popular Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Popular's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Popular's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Popular fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Popular's stock price is slightly above 61 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Popular, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.407 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.9517 | EPS Estimate Current Year 14.112 | EPS Estimate Next Year 15.9183 | Wall Street Target Price 154 |
Using Popular hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Popular from the perspective of Popular response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Popular using Popular's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Popular using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Popular's stock price.
Popular Short Interest
An investor who is long Popular may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Popular and may potentially protect profits, hedge Popular with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 114.7397 | Short Percent 0.0297 | Short Ratio 3.38 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.7 M | 50 Day MA 122.0296 |
Popular Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Popular on the next trading day is expected to be 133.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 88.98.Popular Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Popular's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Popular. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Popular can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Popular. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Popular's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Popular.
Popular Implied Volatility | 0.34 |
Popular's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Popular stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Popular's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Popular stock will not fluctuate a lot when Popular's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Popular on the next trading day is expected to be 133.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 88.98. Popular after-hype prediction price | USD 133.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Popular to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Popular contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Popular will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0213% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Popular trading at USD 133.25, that is roughly USD 0.0283 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Popular's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Popular options at the current volatility level of 0.34%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Popular Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Popular's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Popular's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Popular stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Popular's open interest, investors have to compare it to Popular's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Popular is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Popular. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Popular Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Popular price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Popular using various technical indicators. When you analyze Popular charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Popular Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Popular on the next trading day is expected to be 133.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.48, mean absolute percentage error of 4.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 88.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Popular Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Popular's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Popular Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Popular | Popular Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Popular Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Popular's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Popular's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 131.51 and 134.91, respectively. We have considered Popular's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Popular stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Popular stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7071 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.4193 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4831 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0122 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 88.9837 |
Predictive Modules for Popular
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Popular. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Popular After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Popular at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Popular or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Popular, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Popular Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Popular's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Popular's historical news coverage. Popular's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 131.56 and 134.94, respectively. We have considered Popular's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Popular is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Popular is based on 3 months time horizon.
Popular Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Popular is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Popular backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Popular, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 1.70 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
133.25 | 133.25 | 0.00 |
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Popular Hype Timeline
Popular is currently traded for 133.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.32, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Popular is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 165.05%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.31%. %. The volatility of related hype on Popular is about 14166.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 133.25. About 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.39. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Popular has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.75. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 12.3. The firm last dividend was issued on the 5th of December 2025. Popular had 1:10 split on the 30th of May 2012. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Popular to cross-verify your projections.Popular Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Popular's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Popular's future price movements. Getting to know how Popular's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Popular may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ZION | Zions Bancorporation | 1.71 | 9 per month | 1.16 | 0.09 | 2.58 | (1.58) | 8.08 | |
| CFR | CullenFrost Bankers | 0.59 | 10 per month | 0.86 | 0.09 | 3.15 | (1.48) | 7.64 | |
| ONB | Old National Bancorp | 0.46 | 10 per month | 1.19 | 0.11 | 2.93 | (1.98) | 7.78 | |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares | (0.43) | 9 per month | 1.17 | 0.01 | 2.40 | (2.03) | 6.30 | |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners | (4.18) | 8 per month | 1.53 | 0.04 | 2.99 | (2.01) | 8.67 | |
| CADE | Cadence Bancorp | 1.43 | 8 per month | 1.43 | 0.12 | 3.62 | (2.23) | 10.35 | |
| UMBF | UMB Financial | 0.41 | 11 per month | 1.09 | 0.08 | 3.61 | (1.53) | 6.43 | |
| WAL | Western Alliance Bancorporation | (3.04) | 7 per month | 1.65 | 0.08 | 3.88 | (2.96) | 10.08 | |
| SNV | Synovus Financial Corp | (1.28) | 2 per month | 1.99 | (0) | 2.93 | (2.49) | 9.63 | |
| BOKF | BOK Financial | 4.45 | 8 per month | 0.83 | 0.19 | 3.17 | (1.26) | 7.41 |
Other Forecasting Options for Popular
For every potential investor in Popular, whether a beginner or expert, Popular's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Popular Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Popular. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Popular's price trends.Popular Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Popular stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Popular could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Popular by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Popular Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Popular stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Popular shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Popular stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Popular entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Popular Risk Indicators
The analysis of Popular's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Popular's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting popular stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Variance | 2.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.26) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Popular
The number of cover stories for Popular depends on current market conditions and Popular's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Popular is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Popular's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Popular Stock Analysis
When running Popular's price analysis, check to measure Popular's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Popular is operating at the current time. Most of Popular's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Popular's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Popular's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Popular to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.