BOGLE SMALL Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| BOGIX Fund | USD 31.41 0.27 0.87% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
This summary links BOGLE SMALL's attention patterns to recent price behavior and peer context.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bogle Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 31.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.99.BOGLE SMALL after-hype prediction price | $ 31.41 |
The hype panel supports comparisons with forecasting models, technical signals, analyst consensus, and earnings.
BOGLE |
BOGLE SMALL Additional Predictive Modules
Forecasting BOGLE SMALL's price movement relies on structured analysis of indicator behavior, momentum signatures, and historical volatility patterns. Predictive models for BOGLE work best when confirmed by real-time indicator readings.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bogle Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 31.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.11 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.99 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BOGLE Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BOGLE SMALL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest BOGLE SMALL | BOGLE SMALL Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Bogle Small Cap uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BOGLE SMALL mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BOGLE SMALL mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0025 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2498 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0078 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.9871 |
The mean reversion principle applied to BOGLE SMALL's suggests that neither prolonged outperformance nor underperformance is permanent. Investors exploit this by positioning against extremes in price relative to fundamental value.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Probability distributions applied to BOGLE SMALL price forecasting provide a more honest representation of uncertainty than single point estimates. The shape of BOGLE SMALL's distribution - whether it is symmetric, skewed, or fat-tailed - carries important information for risk.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
News-driven price analysis for BOGLE SMALL quantifies the historical relationship between headline events and BOGLE SMALL's short-term price response. BOGLE SMALL's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 30.40 and 32.42, respectively. The strength of this signal depends on the consistency of BOGLE SMALL's past reactions to comparable news categories.
Current Value
This after-hype projection for Bogle Small Cap uses a 3 months horizon to examine how price may behave after short-term sentiment effects dissipate. The practical value is that it frames how far price could retrace or stabilize once the headline cycle loses intensity.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as BOGLE SMALL is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading BOGLE SMALL backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with BOGLE SMALL, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 17 Events | 4 Events | In 17 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
31.41 | 31.41 | 0.00 |
|
Hype Timeline
Bogle Small Cap is currently traded for 31.41. The fund stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. BOGLE is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on BOGLE SMALL is about 966.32%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 31.41. The fund has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.49. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Bogle Small Cap had its last dividend issued on the 5th of December 2019. Assuming a 90-day horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 17 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of BOGLE SMALL can be used to cross-verify projections for BOGLE SMALL. The historical series provides projection context.Related Hype Analysis
When a direct competitor of BOGLE SMALL experiences a significant news event, the market often re-rates BOGLE SMALL's shares in sympathy or in contrast, depending on whether the news affects the sector broadly or competitively.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SWFCX | Sentinel International Equity | -0.43 | 1 per month | 0.88 | 0.20 | 1.64 | -1.37 | 9.59 | |
| RYIPX | Royce International Premier | -0.33 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.08 | 1.18 | -1.41 | 4.62 | |
| WIGTX | Wasatch World Innovators | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| EKGIX | Wells Fargo Global | 0.03 | 6 per month | 0.00 | -0.04 | 1.69 | -1.67 | 4.44 | |
| CGO | Calamos Global Total | -0.02 | 5 per month | 1.04 | 0.07 | 1.31 | -1.71 | 4.30 | |
| TPZ | Tortoise Capital Series | -0.33 | 2 per month | 0.71 | 0.18 | 1.55 | -1.20 | 4.14 | |
| IHD | Voya Emerging Markets | -0.02 | 4 per month | 1.32 | 0.09 | 1.65 | -1.74 | 6.42 | |
| MCN | Madison Covered Call | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.62 | 0.08 | 1.20 | -1.17 | 3.19 | |
| TCMIX | Amg Timessquare International | 0.07 | 11 per month | 1.13 | 0.02 | 1.20 | -1.53 | 5.20 |
Other Forecasting Options for BOGLE SMALL
Regardless of investment experience, understanding BOGLE SMALL's price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in BOGLE. Price charts for BOGLE Mutual Fund are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.BOGLE SMALL Related Equities
The following equities are related to BOGLE SMALL within the Small Blend space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing BOGLE SMALL against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
BOGLE SMALL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for BOGLE SMALL give investors insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators helps investors make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading BOGLE SMALL is likely to be most rewarding.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 31.41 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 31.41 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.27 |
BOGLE SMALL Risk Indicators
A thorough review of BOGLE SMALL's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis helps investors determine the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding BOGLE SMALL's.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7697 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9462 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Variance | 1.01 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8953 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.83 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for BOGLE SMALL
Coverage intensity for Bogle Small Cap matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.