BlackRock Health Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

BMEZ Stock  USD 13.88  0.00  0.00%   
BlackRock Health's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BlackRock Health Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 13.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.19.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past BlackRock Health observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older BlackRock Health Sciences observations. BlackRock Health's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Triple exponential smoothing for BlackRock Health - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When BlackRock Health prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in BlackRock Health price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of BlackRock Health Sciences.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BlackRock Health Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 13.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.19 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BlackRock Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BlackRock Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates BlackRock Health's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Market Value
13.88
13.82
Expected Value
14.78
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BlackRock Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BlackRock Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.029
MADMean absolute deviation0.1218
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0083
SAESum of the absolute errors7.189
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past BlackRock Health observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older BlackRock Health Sciences observations.

Other Forecasting Options for BlackRock Health

Analyzing BlackRock Health's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in BlackRock Health's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.

BlackRock Health Related Equities

Sizing up BlackRock Health against these stocks within the Health Care space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how BlackRock Health's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. Finding which peers are closest to BlackRock Health in business model helps sharpen the comparison. The data below allows side-by-side review across the most common financial metrics.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

BlackRock Health Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for BlackRock Health stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade BlackRock Health.

BlackRock Health Risk Indicators

Assessing BlackRock Health's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting BlackRock Health's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for BlackRock Health

A coverage review of BlackRock Health Sciences shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

BlackRock Health Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to BlackRock Health Sciences matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding13.3 M
Dividends Paid-35.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments26.6 M
Forward Annual Dividend Rate1.32

More Resources for BlackRock Stock Analysis

Analysis of BlackRock Health Sciences often begins with its financial statements and historical patterns. Selected reports below provide context for BlackRock Stock: